An Empirical Research On The Promotion Effect On Imports Of Guangdong Province's Economic Growth

Since the World War II, the influence that foreign trade imposes on the growth of economy has been a hot spot for research, but those researches only stressed the influence that exports impose on the economic growth. Nowadays, with a more open market, China has more trade businesses with other countries all over the world. The trade relation between china and other countries is becoming more and more close. As the tariff and other NON-trade barriers are largely reduced, more and more commodities have been imported to China. The trade policy applied in the past, which overemphasized export trade, is now facing a severe challenge. In order to comply with global trade regulation, Chinese government and academic circles have to rethink about the effect that imports have on the economic growth. Many studies show that Import has a magnificent effect on the economy, much more than what we can imagine.Taking the new theory about economic growth as the theory base, this paper explains the improvement of Guangdong Province economy due to imports or exports. And it composes a Co-integration System Model for investment, consumption, import/export trading through an Integration Analysis and according to the identical equation of national income, which has been applied to perform a systematical analysis on the relationship between import trade and the growth of economy. Co-integration Analysis proves imports interact with economic growth. And it shows that either from long-term point of view or short-term point of view, the import-trade has a significant impetus to economic growth. Equation System Model testifies that import trade will lead to an economic growth through interacting with investment, consumption, investing fields. All in all, Guangdong Province's import-trade not only directly contribution to this province's economic growth, but also has an indirect promotion to economic growth in a long-term period through a series of dynamic transforms in investment, consumption and the investing fields.