| There is no doubt that high international oil price shocks have a significant impact on the supply security of urban oil. In China, the current study to the impact on domestic refined oil supply security caused by international oil price fluctuations is mainly qualitative analysis. This paper seeks to quantify the analysis ,using Shaoxing City as an example and then on that basis, to further analyze the influence mechanism of the international oil price fluctuations.In order to do a quantitative research on the influence of oil price fluctuations, a set of evaluation index system is established to measure the urban oil supply security respectively from macro, micro and dynamic levels. Then the paper employs an in-depth analysis on the influence degree of the urban oil supply security and from both the qualitative and quantitative point of view.After the influence analysis, the paper constructed a linear model to analyze the impact in two different situations where the new refined oil pricing mechanism has been exactly implemented or has been useless at all. It is proved that high international oil prices can not simply, directly affect the supply security of the urban oil. It has an impact on the supply and demand of the urban oil only combined with domestic oil price lagging, thereby threatening the safety of the city refined oil supply.More importantly, the current new urban oil pricing mechanism is not completely determined by a formula. Even if the new refined oil pricing mechanism was implemented, it can really eradicate the arbitrage space of the big two oil groups, and the coefficient values in the pricing mechanism will affect the security of oil supply.Finally the writer of this paper put forward some personal perspectives on"what kind of pricing mechanism we need". |
