Effect And Countermeasures Of Agricultural Resource Use On Grain Production In Shandong Province

Shandong,one of the major agricultural provinces in China,ranks third in area and yield of grain crops.However,the mismatch problems in water,land resources and food production,etc.are becoming increasingly prominent.Therefore,it is of great significance to optimize the use of agricultural resources to promote grain production.This thesis focuses on agricultural resources and grain production in Shandong Province,which is based on the statistical yearbook data of Shandong and various cities from 2001 to 2021.Through establishing a research framework for agricultural resource use,the these is analyzed the current situation of agricultural resources through mathematical statistics and questionnaires,and dig the temporal distribution characteristics of agricultural resources and grain production in Shandong Province.It has acquired regression analysis using SPSS22.0software to derive the correlation between agricultural resources and food production,taking Jinan City as a case study.Finally,the ARIMA model was used to predict differences in demand and supply of factors such as sown area of grain crops,effective irrigation area of crops,total water resources,total power of agricultural machinery,pesticide use,application amount of agricultural fertilizers,capital investment,and labor investment in Shandong Province in 2023,and proposed strategies for promoting grain production from the perspective of optimizing resource use.The main research results of the thesis are as follows:1.It has sorted out the current situation and problems of agricultural resource use in grain production in Shandong Province.In Shandong the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources is uneven,and the water resource possession is insufficient per capita.The use of pesticides and fertilizers in the province continued to decline from 2002 to 2021,with the use rate of compound fertilizers increasing.The arable land area has decreased by 1809.63 acres,and the agricultural labor force was constantly decreasing.The scale,intensification,and standardization of grain cultivation are relatively low.The investment in funds has continued to increase,and has achieve full coverage of wheat and corn varieties.The total power of agricultural machinery has showed a gradual increasing trend in fluctuations.2.The relationship between grain production and agricultural resource factors was qualitatively analyzed.Natural resources such as soil,water and climate were the basic factors that affected grain production,and they were positively correlated with grain production.The use of fertilizers,pesticides and other resources has decreased,but the use rate has increased significantly,which had no obvious influence on grain output.The agricultural labor force decreased,but technical and capital input continued to increase,which was obviously positively related to grain output.And the farmland infrastructure was increasingly improved,the grain production conditions were significantly improved.Taking Jinan as a case,the comprehensive influence of agricultural resources use on grain production and the correlation among various factors were further confirmed.3.The difference between the supply of agricultural resources and the demand of grain production was quantitatively analyzed.The ARIMA model was used to predict the supply of main agricultural resources in Shandong Province in 2023.It has been put forward that the sowing area of grain crops,the effective irrigation area and the capital input of grain crops,etc.cannot meet the demand of grain production.Production materials such as pesticides,fertilizers have no longer significantly promoted the effect of grain production.Under the background of weight loss and efficiency improvement,quality improvement and environmental protection,improving the use rate of pesticides and fertilizers,scientific and rational fertilization and drug use can meet the needs of grain production.At present,agricultural machinery and labor input can meet the needs of grain production.Under the premise of promoting agricultural large-scale operation,increasing agricultural mechanization rate is the future trend of grain production.4.The thesis has proposed strategies to optimize resource use and increase grain yield.That is,to improve resource use mechanism,optimize the allocation of agricultural resources,improve the efficiency of agricultural resource use.It also put forward to strengthen the protection of arable land,improve land use efficiency and realize a dynamic balance between the total amount and quality of cultivated land.Besides,investment in agriculture should be increased and the structure and areas of capital investment should be optimized,with improving the agricultural financial system and injecting financial vitality into grain production.It is also necessary to improve the disaster prevention&relief system,rescue capabilities,and moderate scale management of land to realize production mechanization as well as farmland infrastructure.With reasonably production factors and economies of scaleallocated,productivity would ultimately increase,and then it would steadily increase grain production and ensure food security.