Research On The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth In China

The21st century is the century of population aging. As basic factor, demographic factor has an important impact on the social economy. During the21st century, China will face a serious problem of aging population. It’s an indisputable fact that China’s economic development faces very serious challenges, which will also bring a far-reaching impact on China’s economic growth. For this problem, there are not enough systematic researches. Not just the population age structure, population aging changes will have a profound impact on the economic growth and people’s lives through household savings, investment, labor supply and labor productivity. From the theoretical and empirical perspective, this study attempts to demonstrate the impact of the aging of the population on China’s economic growth based on the reality of China’s economic and social development. It will give some economic analysis and policy recommendations for the adjustment of China’s population development strategy.This study includes three steps. First, starting from the theory of demographic transition, theoretical research, and systematic review of population aging and demographic changes involved in the economic development, and then describes the causes of China’s population aging. Then I give a detailed conclusion of the status and future trends of China’s population aging. Secondly, based on the empirical research, this paper is to explore the interaction between China’s household savings, investment, labor supply and labor productivity and economic variables. Because the resolutions during the two sessions in2013, the Population and Family Planning Commission will be revoked, this paper will make appropriate analysis for the background and future development of the human intervention reproductive behavior, and it will provide the basis for follow-up research and national health sector policy Changes. Finally, using the theoretical and empirical analysis, it gets the conclusions and policy recommendations to cope with the Chinese population aging and promote economic growth. The paper explores how population aging affects China’s economic growth from some aspects of economic growth. The main conclusions are:1. The dependency ratio of the elderly population has a positive a positive effect on savings, investment and economic growth, and the rate of population growth has a negative impact on the savings rate and investment. The growth rate of the working-age population has a negative impact on the savings rate, and has a positive impact on the rate of investment. This finding is determined by the management of other economic, institutional and demographic variables. China is in a transitional stage between the two demographic dividend windows. Therefore, its economic growth is influenced by several factors, and meanwhile, a flects the demographic changes.2. Rise in household savings is due to the following two factors:First, economic reforms in the1970s and the resulting economic growth prospects for the savings to provide the basis. Second, the one-child policy has led to higher employment population ratio and change the practice of the traditional family as the old-age savings. Discuss how the old age dependency ratio is the impact of savings, investment and economic growth, our study provides a new perspective, and discuss some of the possible policy implications.3. The proportion of China’s working-age population and the proportion of the elderly population are higher than average, the arrival of aging earlier than expected, while the increase in the proportion of the working-age population also appeared earlier than expected. Implementation of the family planning policy leads to the rapid decline in fertility in a very short time, a significant decline in the proportion of young population, and a rapid increase in the proportion of the elderly population. Within a certain period, the decline in the proportion of the youth population is higher than the pace of increase in the proportion of the elderly population, so that the ratio of working-age population rises. The proportion of working-age population in the future in China continued to decline, meanwhile, the proportion of the elderly population continues to rise. That is we usually say "old before getting rich" state.4. The upward trend in the proportion of the elderly population is stable and fast. In contrast, the proportion of the youth population will increase more slowly. The proportion of the population ages15-24years and25-39years of age will continue to decline. In contrast, the proportion of the population in the55-64years age group will increase, while the proportion of the population of the40-54age groups will decline before rise. This is accompanied by not only the entire Chinese population aging, and the working-age population aging. In addition, the labor supply will decline, because it is important15-24age segment of the population to go to college, and a large proportion of the55-64age segment of the population will be retired. We can get an important message from these two forecasts:from the dynamic data, China’s labor supply is not significant, and China’s sustained economic growth has led to the demand for labor. These two apparently are opposing.5. China’s three decades of strict family planning policy has resulted in the rapid aging of China’s population age structure. It also lead to the serious imbalance in the sex ratio at birth of newborn babies and reduce the improve speed of population quality. For population policy adjustment, we should fully liberate the second child policy in short-term. In long-term, reproductive autonomy will help to increase the economic vitality of China’s sustainable economic development. If we relax population policy, in short-term it can expand domestic demand and promote the healthy growth of the economy; in medium and long term, it can gain time for the upgrade and transformation of Chinese economy. It is also beneficial to population structure optimization and the normal social continuation. The Population and Family Planning Commission has exited the stage of history, so, population policy of strict birth control need to be reflected carefully. Only fully liberate birth control and restore the autonomy fertility of people, can we optimize the current unreasonable population structure, and lay a solid foundation for sustainable economic development and transformation and upgrading.