Savings Rate Based On Demographic Structure And Its Impact On Economic Growth

Savings are an important source of investment,and savings that can be successfully converted into investment are a strong driver of economic growth.China's high savings rate,high investment rate,and high growth rate are known as China's new "three highs" in the 21 st century.Especially China's unusually high savings rate has always been the focus of attention of scholars from various countries.From the 1980 s to the end of the 20 th century,China's savings rate soared,and it also provided a sufficient source of funds for China's economic development.Most of the existing literature believes that China's high savings rate is due to China's specific demographic dividend.However,as the demographic structure continues to change,the demographic dividend gradually disappears,China's savings rate has continued to decline,and China's economic growth has also entered the new normal.Changes in the demographic structure will lead to changes in household savings rates,which in turn will affect economic growth by affecting investment.The research in this article intends to explore the changes in household savings rate and its impact on economic growth from the perspective of population structure.Savings are closely related to economic growth.According to the savings sector,national savings are divided into household savings,government savings,and corporate savings.It is observed that during the sample period studied in this article,the household savings rate and the national savings rate maintained a consistent trend.And the proportion of household savings in national savings is as high as 50% or more.The existing literature on the research of savings rate has chosen the national savings rate as an indicator,and more has used macro aggregates and time series data for empirical research,which makes the research on the savings rate in household data more meaningful.The main content of this research,the first chapter is the introduction.It summarizes the background of the topic and the significance of the research.The literature reviews,sorts out,and analyzes the factors that affect the household savings rate.It is divided into two aspects: family internal factors and family external factors,and summarizes the relevant literature on savings rate and economic growth.Based on this,the problems,solutions and specific measures to be studied in this paper are summarized and then pointed out that the possible innovations in this paper.The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the full text.It mainly reviews and summarizes the theoretical analysis framework of existing literature.Firstly,the savings rate and its classification are defined,and then the theories related to savings and the theories related to economic growth are discussed.In the framework of the classic Solow model,an extended Solow model with population structure variables is introduced to lay the theoretical foundation for the research of this paper.The third chapter is the demographic structure and household savings rate.It analyzes the changes in China's demographic structure and the household savings rate,and analyzes the impact on the household savings rate through the changes in household consumption structure brought about by the demographic structure.The main ways to affect the household savings rate and to forecast the future trends of the household savings rate under the background of the aging population,and finally put forward three hypotheses that the population structure affects the household savings rate.The fourth chapter is about the household savings rate and economic growth.It discusses the overall situation of China's economic growth,and explains it from the international level,industrial structure and urban-rural differences.The relationship between household saving rate and economic growth is analyzed,the influence of household savings rate on financial market and capital market is discussed,and the hypothesis of the relationship between savings rate and economic growth is proposed based on the expanded Solow model.The fifth chapter is the empirical part of this article.First,the influencing factors of household savings rate were examined.The micro-family database was used to focus on the impact of the age structure of the family population and the sex ratio of children on the household savings rate,and then further verified the impact of changes in household consumption structure on the household savings rate brought by the population structure.Secondly,the article examines the relationship between the savings rate and economic growth,and starts from the endogenous growth model to study the impact of household savings rate on economic growth.The sixth chapter is a summary of the full text.Based on the previous chapters,it summarizes the changes in household-level savings rates and their impact on macroeconomics.Based on the analysis and empirical results,it summarizes the main research conclusions of this paper and proposes specific policy recommendations.Finally,the limitations of this perspective and possible directions for further research are proposed based on the theoretical and empirical analysis of this article.The conclusion of this paper is divided into two parts.One is the impact of changes in the population structure on the household savings rate,and the other is the impact of household saving rates on economic growth based on demographic changes.The former study analyzes the demographic factors that affect the household savings rate,analyzes the age structure of the population and the gender structure of the children,and takes into account the differences between the typical urban and rural dual economic structure in China,and discusses urban and rural households separately.The empirical results based on micro-family data show that changes in population structure have led to an increase in the savings rate of urban and rural households as the proportion of the elderly increases,but the proportion of rural households have risen far greater than that of urban households,which is mainly due to China's urban and rural residents enjoying medical security caused by different systems.There is a significant positive correlation between the proportion of children of different genders under 15 years of age in urban and rural households and the household savings rate,but the influence of the proportion of boys and girls under 15 years of age on savings rates has significant urban-rural differences.Urban households with a high proportion of boys under the age of 15 have higher household savings rate than households with a high proportion of girls under the age of 15 and rural households with a high proportion of girls under the age of 15 have a higher household savings rate than households with a high proportion of boys under the age of 15.And the difference between the proportion of girls under 15 years of age in rural households and the proportion of boys under 15 years of age in rural households on household savings rates is significantly greater than that of urban households.This article considers that the change in household consumption structure caused by changes in the population structure of the family is the root cause of the change in the household savings rate.By changing the dependent variables to the living expenditure,transportation and communication expenditure,education,cultural and entertainment expenditure and medical care in the final household consumption expenditure,we found that the proportion of the elderly over 65 years of age has a significant positive effect on family health care expenditures in both urban and rural areas,indicating that families with more elderly people need to reserve higher medical care costs to cope with the elderly pension.Regardless of urban or rural families,the proportion of boys and girls under 15 years of age has a significant positive relationship with the expenditure on education,culture and entertainment of the family,indicating that both urban and rural families have to make higher savings for their children's education.The research conclusions of this paper on household savings rate indicate that increasing medical security and solving the problem of elderly care for residents,especially for rural residents;policies such as increasing public education expenditure and reducing the family education burden can effectively alleviate the situation of excessive household savings rate.The latter research suggests that changes in the household population structure will bring about changes in the consumption structure.Different consumption characteristics of family members of different age and gender structures affect household consumption expenditures and savings,which in turn will affect macroeconomics through investment.This paper examines the relationship between the savings rate and economic growth using a dynamic growth model of inter-provincial panel data,and concludes that the savings rate can promote economic growth.The empirical result shows that the coefficient of the quadratic term of the household savings rate is significantly negative,indicating that the savings rate and the economic growth rate are not always linear.There may be an inverted U-shaped relationship between the two,that is,a household savings rate below a certain level can promote economic growth,but an excessively high rate of household savings may not be conducive to economic growth.The innovations in this article are as follows:1.Most literatures that study the influencing factors of the savings rate are examined from single factors such as the age structure of the population,life expectancy,or prevention motivation.The research in this article focuses on analyzing the population structure,and refines the factors affecting the population structure into the age structure and gender structure of the population.2.The savings rate research based on the perspective of the family,mostly from the perspective of population support burden,prevention motivation,etc.There is little literature to discuss the impact of household consumption expenditure structure on the savings rate.The research in this article is about the changes in household consumption expenditure structure.The article explores the impact of changes in four types of consumption expenditure that are closely related to the age structure and gender structure of household populations on household savings rates in the context of changes in household consumption expenditure structure.3.The empirical results in this article show that both the increase in the proportion of the elderly and the proportion of children has a positive impact on the household savings rate,however,the high proportion of the elderly has a significantly greater impact on the household savings rate in rural areas than in urban areas.And the impact of a high proportion of boys under the age of 15 on the household savings rate in urban households is greater than the proportion of girls under the age of 15,while rural households with a high proportion of girls under 15 years of age have a significantly greater impact on household savings rates than households with a high proportion of boys under 15.The results show that the concept of "raising children and preventing old age" still prevails in rural families.For families that do not have the conditions of "raising children and preventing old age",saving more is the main choice for rural families.It can be seen that high savings and "raising children and preventing old age" has a strong substitute in affecting the household savings rate in rural.Urban households have a relatively complete medical and social security system as a powerful guarantee for residents' old-age care,and do not show such characteristics.The research conclusions of the gender ratio of children under 15 years old and the savings rate of residents in urban and rural areas are innovative.4.In the past,the literature on the study of the household savings rate mostly used macro panel data for empirical research.The research in this paper uses micro household data(CHIP)to conduct an empirical analysis of factors that affect the household savings rate.The savings rate is the main explanatory variable to verify its relationship with economic growth.5.The empirical results of adding the second term of the savings rate show that the relationship between the savings rate and economic growth is not a simple linear relationship.There may be an inverted U-shaped relationship between the savings rate and economic growth.It can be seen that the savings rate below a certain range is not conducive to economic growth.The high savings rate beyond this range will hinder the economy.Only the savings rate in a specific range will promote economic growth.