A Quantitative Study Of The Effect Of The Tax Rebate Policy On Export

The tax rebate policy has a very important effect on optimizing the structure of export commodities, optimizing the trade method and adjusting the favorable balance of trade. This paper basics on qualitative analysis, analyses the impact of structural adjustment of tax rebate on export.Firstly, this paper builds a panel data model on the amount of industry export and its tax rebate, the result shows that electromechanical industry, steel industry and computer correspond are the most sensitive industries to the adjustment of tax rebate. Secondly, because china has reduced the rate of tax rebate twice in Jan, 2004 and July, 2007, this paper applies the intervention analysis their affection on china's export, the result shows that the adjustment of tax rebate policy has basically achieved its goal in short time, that is, it has shut down on the export of high pollution, high energy consumption and resources products, give an impetus to the export of technique products, and optimized the export structure, but it cannot naturally change the trade method, processing trade still will be the main method of export trade.In 2006, china's economy still keeps a fast developing, and its trade favorable balance and international balance of payment enlarges. In order to adjust the favorable balance of trade, the Chinese government has reduced rate of tax rebate on the main industry such as spinning and weaving clothing, iron and steel once again. This paper also applies the intervention analysis to the export of spinning and weaving clothing industry. The result indicates that the structural adjustment of tax rebate has a limit effect on favorable balance of trade.