Empirical Study On The Impact Of China's Services Trade On Services Employment

Along with the rapid development of international services industries, the impact of services trade on economy is increasingly obvious. Employment has become the primary problem of developing process of China economy. Due to specialty of national conditions of China, solving problem of employment can't solely depend on domestic consumption and investment, but should adopt various methods. According to trade multiplier theory, services trade will have impact on domestic employment including services employment by improving national economy. This paper aims at analyzing acceleration of services trade on employment in service industry in China.First, this paper makes analysis on present situation of services trade, employment, and services employment of China, and gets conclusion that present development of services trade of China has lack contribution on employment and it has a bigger development space. Aiming at deficient literature in area of impact of services trade on employment and correlativity of services trade and international trade, the paper introduces relevant theory of international trade and employment growth, and reviews and draws lessons from abundant foreign and domestic literatures about impact of international trade on employment, then combines specialty of services trade and makes theoretic analysis on services trade improving employment.Second, this paper takes data of import and export volume of China services trade from the WTO website and population of employment in service industry from China Statistic Yearbook during the year from 1982 to 2003. Co-integration test showed that 1% increase in export and import value of services created respectively 0.205% and 0.068 7% more job opportunities in the service sector. Both export and import of services impacted positively on employment in service industry, and export did that more strongly than import. However in the short run, the impacts of both export and import of services on employment in service industry were very small, though positive; and the impacts of employment in service industry on both export and import of services are very big, but not stable. Granger causality test indicated that employment in service industry was a Granger cause of services export.In the end, this paper put forward political suggestions of developing China's services trade strongly to improve employment growth, including the following as: develop services industry strongly, to establish a solid foundation for development of services trade; government should consider constituting strategic planning on development of services trade; strengthen legislation and open services trade market conditionally and stage by stage; take the opportunity of transferring services trade from developed countries and develop transnational services subcontract strongly; put stress on training talents of services trade and improve comprehensive ability of the employed.