Analysing The Economic Effect And Influencing Factors Of Short-Term International Capital Flowing In China

Since from the Asian financial crisis in 90's, many countries taken more contribution in controling international capital flowings, especially the short-term international capital. On the basis of its flowing nature, this article distinguishes the international capital into three types, including long-term international capital, broad short-term international capital, and parochial short-term international capital, which breaking through the limitation of analysing international capital as a macrocosm. The author summarizes some present methods, and then choses a scientific and effective indirect method to calculate the scale of short-term international capital flowing scale. This article estimates the scale of three kinds of international capitals from 1997 to 2006. The estimating result shows that kinds of international capital flowing have obvious stages with inflow or outflow, and the scale of parochial short-term international capital flowing turnned to continual net inflow, and the trend put up with increasing by degrees.Based on the scale of calculation, this article compares the effect and influence between short-term international capital flowing and economic influences of China. The metric conclusion indicates: First, the current economic effect of short-term international capital bringing is more remarkable, and it could motivate the development of economy of China to a certain extent. Simulately, parochial short-term international capital flow is not the main cause of market profitable rate, in despite of the results of analysing with yearly data or with high frequence of monthly data. Thirdly, the main causes of short-term international capital include interest rate, exchange rate and other balancing economic factors. Otherwise, the factors reflecting national macroscopical economy is the mainly causes of influencing the long-term international capital flowing. Throughing analysing, the author considers that the flowing of short-term international capital is propitious to development of economic, and the current flowing scale is safe for China since 1997. So as author's recognization that it is not necessary to consider restraining the flowing of short-term international capital as the chiefest task in China now. At the same time, in order to defensing the risk in advance, the author tables two proposals of how to defend the short-term international capital flowing with exceeding scale; and how to improve the capability of guarding risks launched by short-term international capital.