The Empirical Research On International Short-term Capital In China

International short-term capital (ISC) is the short-term investing money with high flow ability, which is very alert to the economic information in the international financial market, very risky as well as highly profitable. ISC is the foundation for the efficient international financial market, accelerates the integration proceeding of economy and finance, and, most of all, exposes each economy to the external unrest. The economic bubble is aggravating, and the investing risk is expanding in our country. If enormous capital outflow emerges, tremendous loss will be caused to our national economy. Before the crisis happens, we should accurately measure the scale of the ISC in our country, and evaluate the influencing factors to find out the suitable policy, which has necessitous practical importance.This paper applies comprehensive and comparatively precise method to estimate the monthly data of the ISC in our country; then, the change of Shanghai stock index, the change of exchange rate of non-deliverable forward of Renminbi, the total volume of social consumer goods, the interest rate difference and the estimated data before are ADF tested, changed to stable series, and regressed with the GARCH model, which is all done by the software EVIWS5.0.This paper consists of five parts. The first part is introduction; the second is the article review; the third is the empirical analysis; the fourth is the policy suggestion; the fifth is the ending. This paper's new ideas are as follows: to bring in the Shanghai stock index as the security price; to apply residual test and GARCH model; the interest rate difference is excluded out of the influencing factors; Granger test is used to indicate that ISC influences the fluctuation of stock index and appreciation expectation of Renminbi after its inflow.