An Empirical Study On The Short - Term International Capital Flow Size, Influencing Factors And Their Economic Effects In China

When look back to2012, the global economy was still struggling, influenced by the European sovereign debt crisis, although the economic downturn has eased, on the whole, the combination of low economic growth, high unemployment of developed countries, slow recovery of recession, however, emerging economies themselves are also faced with the bottleneck of economic development and sharp drop in global trade, such a complicated global economic situation will deeply affect international capital flow. As the Fed launched a third round of quantitative easing monetary policy In November2012, which will further accelerate the volatility of short-term international capital flows, especially for emerging markets like China, which is likely to face a new round of short-term international capital inflows.This paper has a systematical research on the scale, motivation and economic effects of the short-term international capital flow, to begin with, the chapter one make a comprehensive overview of estimation methods of its scale, then the chapter two uses them estimate the scale in our country, finally, simplifies and adjusts some of these methods, puts forward a calculation formula for this paper. The chapter three both theoretically and empirically discusses main factors influencing the short-term international capital flow, Considering publicity, availability, accuracy and unity of relative data, based on monthly data of2005.8-2012.9, chapter three has done empirical research on the economic effect caused by it, on the basis of the reality in our country, analysis and explains the empirical results. The chapter four briefly summarizes the main content of the article, and makes estimations and judgments on the size of the short-term international capital flowing into China and its trend, finally, puts forward policy suggestion on the regulation of short-term international capital flows.The empirical results show that the short-term international capital flow has the "triple arbitrage" tendency to arbitrage for exchange rate, commodity price, interest rate, exchange arbitrage is the most speculative one among these. Part of it inflows through QFII and B share market or other undetected ways, and it can turn to middle-long term speculative capital, and sudden changes in the short-term international capital flow may affect the exchange rate and stock index volatility.