Decision Making And Risk Management For Auto Credit

With rapid growth of China's automotive consumption market, accompanied by thriving of automotive industry, auto credit has become the first choise of many consumers so that it promotes fast growth of China's automotive industry. On the other hand, the risk of auto credit has been revealed extensively in the past a few years.This thesis reviews the current situation of auto credit in China and discusses risk management of auto credit from various aspects.Through comprehensive applications of management science and decision making, such as Game Theory, Gray Prediction, Markov Chain, Fuzzy-AHP etc.. Based on the reality of Chinese market this thesis provides fundamental theory and practical strategies for China's automobile credit risk management. The main results of this thesis are listed as follows.First, based on the model analysis for forced default and rational default and their practical application on cases, this thesis suggests some useful strategies against such risk of auto credit.Second, this thesis applies Gray Prediction model to predict future ratio of non-performing loan. Based on this a prediction model for loan status is set up with the aid of Markov transfer matrix.Third, popular methods of risk diverting and transferring techniques are summarized and compared. At the same time, the feasibility of the securitization of auto credit loan is discussed.Finally, based on the theory of Total Risk Management, this thesis proposes a comprehensive evaluation model of auto credit risk based on Fuzzy-AHP method.