An Empirical Research On The Promotion Effect Of Import To China's Economic Growth

The impact of foreign trade on economic growth has come into an important issue for the academic research since World WarⅡ.But many studies concentrated on the effect of export on economic growth.However foreign trade includes both export and import.Studies on the effect of export on economic growth are not sufficient for people to know the effect of foreign trade on economic growth.It is necessary to research the effect of import on economic growth.Foreign trade has been playing an important role in China's economic growth process.But stressing the export,under-estimating or even neglecting the import,is a long-term tendency in policy practices and research in our country.Under the background that economic globalization pushes forward quickly,a systematic study in the function and the mechanisms of import to the economy growth is necessary in making full use of native advantages and other countries' strength.This dissertation starts with reviewing relative theories on relationship between import and economic growth,and existing studies at home and abroad.Then,this paper investigates the impact mechanisms of import on economic growth on theoretical level.Import can break supply bottle-neck,create effective demand, bring upgrade of industry structure,accelerates technologic progress and institutional innovation,and so on.Then,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,error correction model, and other analytical methods are used to analyze the promotion effect of import on China's economic growth by using the data of import and GDP from 1980 to 2006. At the same time,goods of import are divided into three categories: resource-intensive products(primary products),labor-intensive manufactured products and capital-intensive manufactured products for further analysis of their different roles to GDP growth.The results show that there is co-integrative relation between import and economic growth and import has a significant effect on economic growth both in long-term and short-term;import and GDP growth are reasons for Granger causality to each other.Meanwhile,the import of capital-intensive manufactured products have both long-term and short-term positive effect to GDP growth,resource-intensive products have a long-term positive effect to GDP growth,and labor-intensive products have no positive effect to GDP growth both in long-term and short-term.Finally,on the basis of the above analysis,this paper suggests methods and counter measurements on optimizing the positive effect of import to economic growth.