Analysis On The Structure Of Energy Resources And Electricity Forecasting In China

Electric power is one of the most essential energy resources, and plays an important guarantee function to maintaining rapid economic development and improving people's living in China. In recent years, electric power supply and demand have been in a state of extremely unbalanced in some regional areas, especially in the developed east past of China , electric power supply can hardly meet the requirements of economic development, and seriously restraints the development of economy. At present, in China secondary energy—electricity, which is transformed from geographical energy accounts for the total generating capacity of 99% and geological energy will be regarded as the most important primary energy. Thus, in the light of China's national situations, based on fully considering the dynamic relations among energy resource, environment, economy and enterprise's economic results, to accurately analyze and master the long-term demand tendency and structure of electric power market, will surely be of great practical significance to China's electric power industry in formulating a scientific, rational long-term development plan, and to the nation in effectively carrying out macro-economic adjustment and control.Firstly, this thesis systematically analyzes the supply-demand structure of China's electric power market, the structure of power generation sources, the distribution of electric power industry, and the relations between electric power industry and economic development, etc.; On the basis of this, the thesis deeply analyzes the main factors affecting China's electric power supply-demand and the key reason causing the regional supply-demand conflicts, by combining the power market-orientation theory and power operational model theory; Then,based on characteristics of the short-term,long-term's power demand and making use of different quantity methods, the thesis analyzes the medium and long-term development tendency of China's electric power , and in particular, places the emphasis on the analysis and prediction of China's electric power demand from 2008 to 2020; At last, the thesis comes up with some countermeasures and suggestions for future development of China's electric power industry, such as to vigorously develop thermal power, to take developing hydropower as focal point, to enhance installed capacity of nuclear power, to heighten hydropower capacity in south-west region, etc., by combining with the forecast results of power generation and installed capacity. Furthermore, the thesis also puts forwards relevant solutions to the adjustment and optimization of electric power resource structure and space distribution, operational model of power industry, power market-orientation and interconnection of power networks and how power industries develop under the financial crisis.There are ten chapters in the thesis, respectively introduces the research significance of long-term prediction of electric power demand,the theories and methods and factors of electricity demand prediction, analyses the supply-demand structure of power market,analyzes and forecast the short-term and long-term demand of power market; brings forward the solutions to solve China's power supply-demand contradiction. It is expected that the research conclusion be able to provide certain reference to China's electric power industry in formulating a scientific long-term development plan.