| The formation of asset price bubble is a quite complex process.Many factors in the economy play a quite vital role to the formation and expansion of asset price bubble,especially in the economic expansion time,the phenomenon of asset price bubble can easy occurred.The problem of asset price of the stock and the real estate occurred in our country has drawn a lot of attention from domestic and overseas.In China,the assets price,especially the stock market and the partial region real estate price have surpassed the defined zone of mild bubble.This dissertation consists of theory and empirical study.Start form the common character of assets price expansion,researching on the general process,then examine whether our country'stock market and the real estate market exist bubble,reaching a conclusion of stock market exists comprehensive and serious bubble and the real estate market exists structure bubble from 2004 to 2007,next analyzing the main reason and expansion mechanism of bubble expansion combined with the specific feature,finally puts forward the corresponding policy proposal.■structure arrangementThis paper includes seven parts:The first part,the General,mainly talk about the background and significance,ideas and methodology,also indicate the article research frame,command the full text from the macroscopic angle;The second part,review the theories about asset price bubble,including the asset pricing theory, the efficiency market hypothesis theory,the noise trading theory and the portfolio theory,makes the theory upholstery for the next analysis;The third part,concept frame,simply introduction the related concept about assets price bubble, the relationship between stock market and real estate market,and the relationship about bubble, bubble economy and economical bubble,so to deepen the knowledge of bubble;The fourth part,analyze the formation mechanism of asset price bubble.First analyzes the participant of asset market,and then determine the transaction strategy in the market according to participant's characteristic.The change of transaction strategy causes to the change of operation strategy,then analyze the general inflation process of asset price bubble;The fifth part,reality inspection about asset price bubble,analysis about the actual situation existence of bubble.To judge whether stock market and the real estate market exists bubbles with some indirect index such as bubble coefficient and P/E ratio,housing price-to-income ratio and the contrast of the commercial housing price index with other commodity price index;The sixth part,above the result of fifth part,uses the fourth part of theory result to make the empirical analysis to our country's assets price bubble.Study the interactive relations of stock market and the housing market,the bubble of stock market and real estate market and money supply, finally obtains the inflation process of asset price bubble in China;The seventh part,makes a summary on the above analysis,then puts forward the countermeasures proposal aims at the direct and the indirect reason which promote the assets price rising continually.■basic conclusions in the thesisAfter analysis,the basic conclusions of this study come to the following:1.The bubble economy is not a individual case of financial problems occurred in individual nation,but the inevitable products of a companion when the economy has developed to a certain stage.For the bubble,rational behavior which should to be taken is to learn to adapt to the bubble, respond to the bubble,but also take use of bubble,and to prevent malignant bubbles.2.From 2005 to 2007,the stock market bubble is serious,even though the bubble characteristics of China's real estate market is not very clear from the whole,but the individual regional bubble is serious,and in some areas the bubble expanded gradually.3.The Shanghai Composite index and the national real estate sales price index exists a stable relationship.4.The excess liquidity is the source of asset price bubbles.There are a lot of factors to promote the formation of asset price bubbles,there are internal and external,direct and indirect,but the source is the funding environment,that is to say the bubble is the root cause of the birth of M2.5.The positive interaction of stock market and housing market implied financial risks.The stock market and housing market as the two main investment channels,the price fluctuations of them has a clear correlation.To study whether a interaction exists in the stock market and housing market has a significant meaning.6.Excessive speculation is the direct driving force for the continuing rise of price.It can be said that all the direct or indirect causes which promote the asset prices to rise are performed by speculation.7.Expectation is a basic hidden condition which runs through the formation of asset price bubbles.Expectation is the power source of speculation,it expresses directly to the asset price inflation expectations,can also be reflected in the improvement of the economic situation and the system environment.It influents the behavior of market participants directly as a Psychological factors:8.China's unique economic environment and institutional deficiencies become an important factor in bubble inflation.■Countermeasure suggestions:1.The macro-policy recommendations.It includes(1)monetary policy improvements.The formulation of monetary policy should take full account of asset price bubbles;(2)solve the problem of excess liquidity.On the management of excess liquidity not only to government sources,but also sparse flow;(3)widen the investment channels.To cultivate a mature capital market and develop a diversified investment channels;(4)improve the investment philosophy.Investment philosophy is a successful investment principle that established through Practice examination for the investor gets rid of the blindness of investment behavior.2.The stock market policy recommendations.(1)Improve the quality of listed companies,the implementation of the listing system from the stock market.To the healthy development of the stock market,listed from the stock market should be strictly implemented.Suspend or terminate the listing of the listed companies which has a bad performance in a long-term or has serious problem in asset or management to stimulate the listed companies pay more attention to enhance their own performance;(2)establish a standard system of information disclosure.Only effectively improve the transparency of the stock market,so can prevent and suppress the emergence of speculative bubbles and expansion;(3)norm the government action and reduce excessive intervention in the stock market;(4)cultivate mature institutional investors.China should make great efforts to cultivate mature institutional investors,speed up the relevant laws and regulations introduced,increase supervision and punishment to institutional investors,and enhance self-discipline of institutional investors.3.The real estate market policy recommendations.(1)Strengthen banking supervision,to guard against the acts of real estate financing;(2)Increase the force of supervision and control of land supply reasonably.The central government should strengthen its supervision of local governments to standardize the transfer of land market behavior,improve the land management system;(3)expand the supply of affordable housing,strengthen the construction of housing rental market.Intensify the development of affordable housing,at the same time to curb the behavior of speculation in high-end real estate of speculators,to increase affordable housing construction and the audit of purchase objects,the creation of temporary housing rental system,strengthen the construction of housing rental market;(4)establish and improve the real estate market information systems and early warning mechanisms. |
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