Study On The Decision-Making Of Vessel Investment In Crude Oil Transport Enterprise

This thesis takes the vessel investment decision-making of crude oil transportation enterprise as the object of study, but before research it, first has carried on a outline to the crude oil transportation and the vessel investment decision-making and related knowledge, then based on the analysis of Chinese crude oil transportation supply and demand market, and the vessel investment present situation of overseas and domestic crud oil sea transportation, utilizing the theory method of real options game makes a analysis of the crude oil transportation enterprise's vessel investment decision-making, and gives the real diagnosis explanation.The thesis first makes a analysis of the characteristic of the marine crude oil transportation and the outline of world marine crude oil transportation, summarizing the present three vessel investment decision-making methods, analysing the crude oil transportation vessel investment's characteristic, namely the vessel investment decision-making of crud oil transportation is effected by the uncertainty and oligarch's monopolizing to a great extent. Then conducts the research to our country crude oil transportation supply and demand market, mainly analizing the current marine crude oil transportation present situation, carries on the forecast with the Caiman filtering to Chicese crude oil consumption quantity, with Chinese crude oil productivity to analysis the future crude oil transportation demand, and maks a compares to our country's crude oil transportation capacity supplies, gets the conclusion of our country urgently needs to increase the tanker investment. Then, utilizing real options game thought that considers the vessel investment as a real options question, takes the detention option value as the investment's opportunity value, competes to two crude oil transportation enterprise in the ships investment's oligarch using the game theory carries on the analysis, establishes the corresponding ships investment option fixed price model, thus obtains the most superior investment the valve value and the corresponding vessel investment option value. Finally, taking two crude oil transportation enterprise which engaged in our country crude oil import invests VLCC as the example, confirms the theoretical model.The investment decision-making method based on the real options game makes a positive response to the uncertainty factor and oligarch competitiveness, is a kind of thinking mode summary, it enables policy-maker's flexible value to manifest with the quantification, theoretically revise the tradition decision method's flaw and insufficiency, makes the investment decision even more drawing close to the reality, provides a reference of market quotation and risk to the decesion-maker, thus makes a accurately appraisal to the oil tanker investment decision-making, makes a more scientific reasonable decision-making.