The Study On Real Estate Early-warning System Of Taiyuan City

On the basis of the comparative analysis of various economic early -warning methods, this paper established the real estate early-warning systems of Taiyuan city, using model early-warning method .The main work that had been done are as follows:1. Constructed the index system of the Real Estate early-warning system of Taiyuan CityThrough the analysis of the reasons for real estate cycle fluctuations and the actual situations of taiyuan that it is the capital city of Shanxi province (coal -province), this text constructed the index system of the Real Estate early-warning system of Taiyuan City, from two aspects: demand and supply.2. Identified the intervals of early warning indicatorsIn this paper, 3σcontrol method was used to determine the intervals of early-warning indicators. In order to accurately identify the intervals, the paper used bootstrap sampling method .It can enlarge the data samples, so can get the intervals more accurately.3. Predicted some indicators using AR (1)-MA (0) modelThe nonlinear double time series model other than the general model can greatly improve the accuracy of forecasts, and has a good adaptability for future trend .So this paper used the model to predict indicators.