Research On The Impact Of International Oil Prices Fluctuation To Chinese Economy And Countermeasures

International oil market has been fluctuated dramatically these years,(the oil price even reached 147dollas per barrel high in 2008),which has brought significant impact to our economic development.With the increasing amount and dependence to oil import,oil price would play a more and more important role within those factors affecting our economy.So, research on the relationship between the oil price and our economic development,on the basis of integrating international oil price tendency with our economic development principle,will be necessary and helpful to deal with the impact of oil price fluctuation proactively,and further,to keep our economic growth.On the basis of both qualitative and quantitative method,cointergration analysis method, which is widely used when studying relationships between economic variances with non-balanced time sequence,was used to analyze the relation between international oil price and main index of our economic development within the effective time scope.It was found that cointergration relations exist between international oil price and economic development. It can be concretely described that:International oil price has some cointergration relations with our GDP,CPI,and import/export amount as well.The impact of oil price will be positive to the entire index on short term;while on long term,the impact of oil price will be positive to CPI,but negative to GDP,and import/export amount.So conclusions can be draw that: generally speaking,dramatic increase of oil price will put negative impact to our economy, which means GDP growth decelerating,CPI index boosting,and import/export amount decreasing.This phenomenon will exist long and became significant,since our economy is more and more depending on the import of oil.To deal with that problem,we need to establish an integrate oil strategy system,transfer our economic structure and economic growth model,and also adjust structure of both domestic industrial and foreign trade,so can we decrease the negative impact of oil price to our economy.