A Study On China's International Short-term Capital Flows Under The Condition Of Trade Openness

With China's improving opening degree and the gradual opening of capital projects, international short-term capital which is becoming more fluctuant, has more ways to flow into or out of China, and the direction of flow is more difficult to handle. Since the financial system and supervision mechanism in China is not sound enough, to measure the amount of China's international short-term capital flows accurately, to understand its causes, source and channels, and to evaluate the influence factors are of great theoretical and practical significance to China's economy and financial stability.From the perspective of trade opening, this paper researched China's international short-term capital flows from 1982 to 2007 deeply. Considering false import and export, false trade credit and false FDI, this paper estimated international short-term capital accurately, and recalculated the degree of trade openness with regression model through the comparison of the traditional measuring method. Then this paper analyzed the trade channels of international short-term capital to flow into or out of China, gave the influence factors both theoretical analysis and empirical tests. After that, the author found the main factors of China's international short-term capital flows and put forward relative policy suggestions. The main conclusions are: trade openness could aggravate the short-term capital flows, by giving more channels; Foreign exchange rate, interest rate and debt are also influence factors. As China's increasing in trade and capital market openness, China should monitor and lead international short-term capital from the perspective of trade, capital market opening-up and other capital control, in order to avoid the impact and influence of international short-term capital, and integrate the world economic system better.The innovation of this paper is that trade openness was considered into the research system of international short-term capital. Also, the paper concluded and analyzed the motives, sources, channels, and the influence factors systematically, and used inspection and regression to do empirical test, which supported the theory viewpoint more strongly. The further research could be: taking service trade openness into account when measuring the degree of trade openness; using monthly data to calculate international short-term capital flows; trying to evaluate influence factors which cannot be quantified currently.