Influence Factors Research On China International Short-term Capital Flow

With the reform and opening up in China continue to deepen,short-term internationalcapital has become an important force of the international capital markets, It’s graduallyincreasing in scale, and even more than the direct invest. The characteristic it has appearedwill attack our economic system, just as high flow ability、profit-driven、hidden andelusive. It’s even testing our less than perfect financial regulatory system. So it’smeaningful to do some research on International short-term capital.And it’s so importantto do some research about short-term international capital.Thanks for the predecessor’s research, I carry out my research on the previousresearch result. I firstly summarize different point of views between different scholar, andthen discovery the shortage of the problem found. We mainly research the measure wayand the main channel of short-term international capital inflow and outflow to china,weselect five main market to analysis its influence on short-term international capital, foreignexchange market, interest rate market、 the real estate market、 stock market andinternational trade market. In this paper we analysis this problem from the corner of linearand nonlinear,from VAR model we analysis when there is a impact on one of these market,how the short-term international capital inflow response through the VAR conduction. Thenonlinear analysis results show that the exchange market and the real estate market has aapparent threshold effect.This paper is organized such as follows:In chapter1we introduce our research backgrand and purpose main innovations and insufficient, summarizes the results of previousstudy; in chapter2we analysis the measure way of short-term international capital inflowand introduced the overview of the short-term international capital inflow; in chapter3weanalysis how the five market inflect the short-term international capital inflow. in chapter4we introduced the theoretical model we used simply, and then we do some empirical research. In the last chapter we analyses the results of empirical research and relevantpolicy recommendations.