The Empirical Of China’s International Influence Factors Of Short-term Capital Flows

In today’s world, never on the history of which one day as today, each country economy is closer contact together. Since the1980s, the computer technology, the communication technology high speed vigorous development makes the distance from the earth is so narrow. And the international capital flows the traditional subject with the development of new technology and the impact of the strong again with the idea of people. Technology to international capital provides the more efficient flow of base, and international short-term capital becomes the world economy that contacting link.China, as nearly30years on the world economic stage most glittering star, of course, get the favour of international short-term capital. Figures showed that China’s current international short-term capital inflows have more than foreign direct investment, for the present capital into China, the main form. While in China. In recent years, the economic development in some of the problems in the process also revealed the short-term capital directly the negative impact in the unceasing strengthened, and the inflation, real estate price bubbles, monetary policy, entity economy weakened, and so on a series of real crisis in front of us, and how to control the international short-term capital, if we reduce the negative impact of international short-term capital, became the contemporary Chinese economic research of scholars have to face the issue.In the face of such problems, we can’t avoid, because the world development process is inevitable trend of integration of our wishes, no matter how, China needs also necessary to the opening of the financial project, involved in the capital market in the world within the scope of the competition. Therefore, before this, China needs to be ready, must for international short-term capital have deep understanding and research, make in the future development road less blind, some more confidence.This paper, through reference to the traditional economics theory and some contemporary for international short-term capital flows research literature combined with the actual condition of China, with accurate grasp of China international short-term capital flows trend for the premise, analyze the influence of the China international short-term capital flows factors, and in the light of these factors to seek a reasonable way, puts forward the reasonable control and guide international short-term capital flows policy Suggestions.In this paper the author of of, basically include the following three aspects of the main content:First, the related international short-term capital flows of the theory of summary and mining. International short-term capital flows is the international flow of capital one kind of form, the distinction between long-term capital flow characteristics of international is its high mobility and flexibility. Although different from long-term capital, but after all, is one of the international capital flows, therefore, can affect the international capital flow of factors is sure to influence of international short term capital. And once people about the international capital flows in the theory of mining can affect short-term capital factor, we first need to consider is necessarily the way. Short-term capital itself from the international perspective, since it has high mobility and flexibility, and the influence of short-term capital decision factors can be short-term itself or even a single, as long as DuanGuoJi short-term capital owner in a controllable period of time, a certain factors or the influence of a moment, when can give short-term capital quite return, so international short-term capital between the international flow may occur. And from the objective external Angle to analyze the international short-term capital, so we often use time or motivation to define international short-term capital flows, thus influence factors and corresponding judgement from this and come. Carry out to the purpose of this article, the China international short-term capital flows influence factor analysis, is in addition to the outside analysis method, we also need to consider China’s economic environment and economic system of its own factors, and find out the real situation in China in conditions affect the international short-term capital flows factors. In this paper the theoretical framework of the structure, the author finally selected the Chinese economic growth rates, carry, and the RMB exchange rate and the Shanghai index returns as influence factors to empirically analysed. Second, in many of the relevant international short-term capital of related theory, especially China international short-term capital flows of the study, the most controversial and the biggest question is about China international short-term capital of calculation. In fact, in all about international short-term capital flows influence factors of the literature, no matter how its conclusion, the most can’t convincing is about to be explained variables, the international flow of measure the short term capital. Because, no matter what the model of measurement of how to construct complete, the selection of explain how variable appropriate, but if for the most important factor of international short-term capital flows-measuring appeared deviation, so all the conclusion will be like, and based on the analysis of the China international short-term capital flows effect factors of the time also facing these problems. Therefore, in this paper, among the authors bold took another double statistics measure flow pattern, with the China international short-term capital flows to the measure, including the direct method and the indirect method of two kinds of caliber statistics, and the real China international short term capital flow data determined the trend, at the same time, find out the constraints of the upper bound. First of all by comparing the two kinds of statistics that data, observe the trend is consistent, if not consistent, so there must be a statistical way is wrong, so must be using the regulating methods; If the trend is consistent, so basically just confirmed the trend of the real data, at least the possibility of data errors fall to lowest probability. Through the upper is the trend of real data definition way, can guarantee the measurement of the late part of prerequisites, it is the accuracy and correctness of the data. Secondly, in the later parts of the model building respectively, the two kinds of statistics to get data validation measurement, and then for the effect factors of the measure results contrast, validation two ways the conclusion is consistent, if appear or the result of differences instead, so that the data statistic or model of the establishment of the inevitable neglected problems, which found the directional guidance; And if two measurement of structure highly consistent verified, then, on the other hand, proved once again the correctness of the steps. It is through such a step of contrast, a step analysis method, and gradually approximation correct research conclusion. And in the measurement model validation section, this paper adopted Granger causality test, VAR model pulse response and variance decomposition method, for each of the effects of the causal relationship between the influence factors and size, has confirmed, China’s economic growth rate, carry, exchange rate for China international short-term capital flows the important influence, and make sure that the China international short-term capital flows and the A share market causality.Third, through the above two steps of research and analysis, finally got about China international short-term capital flows effect factors of the conclusion. With China’s international short-term capital flows to our country economy effects, including inflation and asset prices, weaken the effect of the monetary policy, etc.), according to the paper concluded that affect the international short-term capital flows factors of the results, this paper puts forward the following Suggestions:First of all, careful opening up of the capital market.Second, improve international short-term capital speculative cost.Again, interest rate marketization.Finally, perfect the Stock market mechanism.