The Applicative Analyse Of Shanxi Province Basic Enterprise Pension Insurance PROST Model

Pension insurance policy is the most important composition of social security policy.It's a historical problem of how to establish reasonable pension insurance policy and deal with the matter of old aging.In the last 20 years,China has reformed in many places.China established the new pension insurance policy of the combination with social orchestration & individual account.In the next process,Shanxi Province has also become one of the eight experimental units.With the perfection of the policy and addition of financial saving,it would be more important to make the medium and the long run actuary.This thesis is basic on the Pension insurance fund of Shanxi Province and predicts the income and expenses of fund,the gap and the recessive debt in the future.It also makes a quantificational analysis of the current pension insurance policy.The conclusion can help the correlative departments make scientific decisions on pension insurance policy.In the progress of using the model called PROS,with the effort of the financial department,statistic department,labor guarantee department and other correlative departments,it collects the foundation data with more than 2 million people of the whole province,makes use of computer to finish the simulation,then analyzes the data,and gets the conclusion. The thesis mainly did an estimate to the orchestration fund of the enterprises in Shanxi Province,individual account and the numeral of recessive debt to predict and analyze the influence from some aspects, such as GDP growth rate,death rate and fertility rate,etc.The predication shows that in the predicative period of the current policy in Shanx Province,the pension insurance fund will accept not to arrive,mainly caused by population structure,economic condition and personal account. According to the rigorous situation of pension fund paying,this thesis puts forward five reforming ways of Shanxi Province pension insurance to dissolve the old aging crisis and improve income and expenses condition. First,extend pension insurance facets quickly,consider the relationship of the expanding facets and the future pay fully,and decrease the pays risk.Second,improve the yield rate of pension insurance fund actually and add the investment to the capital market.Third,lower the pay level of pension insurance fun appropriately.Fourth,postpone the retired age in order to make man and women retire at the same age.Fifth,raise the pension insurance pay rate more.