The Study Of Estimating On Implicit Pension Debt Of Social Pension Insurance Of China Based On Actuarial Model

With our living condition improving,the average life span becomes longer recently. Social pension system have encountered crisis among many countries all over the world. Simultaneously, China reformed its social pension system from pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system. It is the key to reform successfully that estimate the amount of the implicit pension debt(IPD) which comes from the cost of the reformation. After that only can we find a appropriate way to repay it.This article built models to estimate IPD using actuary theories, datas available and paramenter hypothesis. The creditors of IPD are distincted into"the old"and"the middle"according to the regulation published 1997. The author classify the pesion receiver as"the at-work middle","the retired middle"and"the old". Then establish actuarial models respectively. The main steps of modeling are as follow: Firstly establish a individual actuarial model which caculate the present value of future pension benifit of individual aged x. The total amount of the present value of the benefit of those who have same age is the future pension benefit of the age group.The next that we should do is to obtain the total amount. Finally we can find out the future benefit that contribution to the premium accumulation before the time of the reformation which is the IPD.The last part of the article raises suggestions of how to reduce and pay back the implicit debt. Included find appropriate sources of the IPD pay-back fund; regular the operation of pension fund; enhance retired age, reduce replacement rate gradually; built a multi-levels social pension system.