Research On Prediction Method About Production Logistics Bottleneck Shifting Of Manufacturing Shop In Uncertain Environment

In modern manufacturing pattern, there are many uncertain factors in the manufacturing process, which cause production logistics bottleneck frequently shift, making decisions of production planning and control based on formed bottleneck deviate from practical production process. Aiming at this situation, present researches mainly apply afterwards control to optimize production process to passively adapt to bottleneck changes. If the direction of bottleneck shifting can be accurately forecasted, the transition from afterwards control of chasing bottleneck to beforehand control can be realized. As we know, there are a lot of deficiencies about the abroad and domestic research on prediction method about bottleneck shifting of production logistics, so this paper expatiates on prediction method about production logistics bottleneck shifting of manufacturing shop in uncertain environment:Firstly, starting from the cause of bottleneck shifting, adopting the mode of top-down thinking to build conceptual model about bottleneck shifting phenomenon, which is applied to analyze bottleneck shifting factors, then the digitized description of bottleneck shifting factors is conducted with time-capability factor ,time-requirement factor and quality assurance capability factor; secondly, Markov Chain is used for describing the state space and transition probability of different bottleneck shifting factors, independent contribution matrix and comprehensive contribution matrix are established to quantitatively describe the coupling mechanism of bottleneck shifting factors;thirdly,to realize scientific description of bottleneck shifting law based on analyzing dynamic property in bottleneck of manufacturing cell, the comprehensive bottleneck degree is proposed to depict dynamic property in bottleneck of manufacturing cell, and then measurement system including bottleneck index, bottleneck shifting index and bottleneck shifting sensitivity index is built; prediction model of production logistics bottleneck is founded to accurately forecast the dynamic changes of bottleneck based on comprehensive bottleneck degree; In the end, an example of an assembly line in ANHUI ANKAI FUTIAN SHUGUANG AXLE CO.,LTD is offered to verify the validity and practicability of the prediction method.