The Research Of Primary Risk Management In Business Process Of Power Grid Enterprise In China

Along with the reform in electric power market, the electrical grid enterprise will meet various risks. The paper introduces the theory of risk management and analyzes the operational risks of power grid enterprise qualitatively and quantitatively from the four aspects which are the risks of electrical load forecasting inaccuracy, the price of TOU (time-of-use), direct-purchase electrical power of large users and market power of plants. The paper estimates the risk of load forecasting inaccuracy with the value at risk and uses the method of combination forecasting based on the value of Shapley to improve the forecast accuracy. To analyze the income risk which the TOU price brings to the electrical grid enterprise, the paper introduces a method of the cost-time curve. The paper considers the interests of all parties and presents the range of transmission and distribution price while analyzing the risk of direct-purchase electrical power of large users. In the analysis of plants marketing power risk, the paper has mainly used the qualitative method to introduce the plants marketing power risk which brings for the electrical network enterprise and the counter measures.