Highway Credit Project Risk Evaluation And Control Research

Along with the speedy development of highway in China, the problems related with the project construction and operation emerge and it is necessary for us to do further analysis and research as for highway project risk management. This paper takes the Ji-Qing highway bank credit project in Shandong province which finished in 1993 as the case, carries out the analysis on the theme of highway project risk management with vague mathematics evaluation method, and explores project risk identification, evaluation and control. This paper is divided into five parts, the first part offers definitions about risk, project and project risk, summarizes the material and artificial factors which cause project risks and explores the main reasons which lead to project risk. The project risk management covers the whole process from project risk identification, estimation, evaluation to risk control, and it proves to be a complete process which contains the content from qualitative estimation to quantitative evolution, from risk identification to risk circumvention and control. The features of credit project risk management lie in three aspects such as long term, interest rate fluctuation and BOT operation risk. The risk factors could be divided into five parts such as overspend, construction postponed, stand-down, marketing risk and political and other force majeure risk. The second chapter of this paper introduces the tool used in the paper-----the vague mathematics evaluation method. The third chapter of this paper explores the organization and operation of highway credit project, and the content covers the whole process of highway project construction, which is made by four parts such as advancement management, quality management, technology management and health, safety and environment management (HSE). The construction and operation of highway is the combination of labor process and natural process, and it is greatly influenced by natural conditions, and all the construction organization, program and technologies should be adjusted according to the environment change. The construction and operation plan management proves to be very complicated, so it will bring a lot of difficulties if the plans are not complete and carefully arranged. Therefore, this paper summarizes the features of high way project plan management as passiveness, fickleness and unbalanced. The fourth chapter explores the highway project risk identification to risk circumvention and control according to the steps of project risk management. The fifth chapter is the empirical study as for highway construction case, and Ji-Qing highway risk management also conforms to the general process of project risk management. In the stage of risk identification, this paper chooses design quality, construction cost, policy obstruction and vehicle flow rate as risk factors, and selects inner return rate as the index for project risk. The sensitiveness of the risk factors are calculated and project risk levels are divided into different grades, which are very small risk, small risk, some risk, heavy risk and very heavy risk. This paper builds vague evaluation first-grade model and second-grade model through experts ranking method, and finally gets the result that Ji-Qing highway credit project has small risk and belongs to the second level risk. The paper summarizes the result in the conclusion and makes perspective about the research development of project risk management.