Emprical Research Of RMB Exchange Rate To China's Import And Export

In 2007,the subprime mortgage not only affected the American economy heavly,but also became the resource of the worldwide economic crisis,it had large impact on the world's economy , affected other industrial field and caused losses in proterty. In reality, America adopted losse Monetary Policy and week US Dollar policy, weak Dollar brings huge risk of exchange rate to China and influences China's import and export.According to the traditional economic theory,the fluctuations of the exchange rate can affect both the balance of trade and the foreign trade of a country.The devaluation of the exchange rate can enhance the competitiveness of a country's products,thus improve the balance of trade increasing exports and inhibiting imports.This paper will analyze the impact of the fluctuation of RMB's exchange rate on China's foreign trade and bring forward some measures to deal with the impact.In the process of theoretical analysis,thie paper analysis all the models exsiting on the basis of the flexible theory and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of these models.In this paper a new model is built based on the existing model,which is more in accordance with the theoretical assumptions by adjusting the variabkes.The significant results are worked out by analyzing the latest data of our country's foreign trade flows with the Grander analysis,correlation, ADF and co integration analysis in the emprical process.By summarizing the previous research, it can get the following results. First,the fluctuation of RMB's exchange rate affects the foreign trade.Second,the RMB's revaluation in small rang will not affect our country's import and export trade obviously,while the revaluation is supported by the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves under China's current macroeconomic ecviroment and double suplus.The RMB's revaluation will exist in a long time according to the current international situation.At the end of this paper,some policy recommendations are given to evade the disadvantages caused by the fluctuation of RMB's exchange rate.