The Forecast Of Price Index Of Real Estates Of China

The real estate market is so hot and the ceaselessly rising real estate price is triggering a series of problems about people's livelihood in recent years.So real estate market is drawing more and more people's attention.And all of us thought real estate market would go on to be hot in 2008 last year,but it has been playing a big joke with us since the second half of 2007,which shows our perception of the real estate market is so poor.This paper mainly talks about national real estate sale price based on economic theory and statistical methods.We detailedly review 33 factors related to real estate sale price with VAR model and Granger causality test.Then we select 6 factors and build a gray system to simulate real estate sale price.We find the gray system to be a good model according to empirical analysis since 2007.Based on our gray system,we can conclude that real estate market in China is still immature because it is typically capital-driven and closely related to national economy. So the most effective macro-control measure is monetary policy.There are two creative aspects in this paper:firstly,the macro and meso factors affecting national real estate sale price are detailedly reviewed;secondly,we regard real estate market as a gray system whose mechanism is still not completely perceived.The deficiency of this paper is that the affecting factors maybe change in future.As the true real estate market in China has been developing lately since the housing reform in 1998,the historical data available for study is relatively less than in developed countries.