Research On The Trade Of Main Woody Forest Products In China

The trade of forest product has gained increasing attention with the uplifting sensitivity for the forest conservation of every country. Among all, China is a large country of forest products production, consumption, and plays a vital part in the import and export trade. In the meantime, its forest resource is very poor, which bring forward a severe problem on its economic development. Through observing the general laws of the world and the feature of China's forest products, the research draws the conclusion of the influence factors of China's forest product trade patern, which helps to raise some suggestions for the development of China's forest product trade.Theoretical analysis gives a brief description of the production and the consumption of major forestry products domestically and worldwide, and points out their current status and future directions of import and export. The circulation of the wood would be restrained in the coming years, exerting the pressure on our country for the reason that the demand for forest products increased dramatically with the rapid development of economy and the improvement of people's living standards in the domestic market. The decrease of their imported volume by a big margin must affect China's wood import corporations and wood products production enterprises, which should be paid high attention to.Empirical research is mainly focused on the import of the main woody forest products analyzing. It is very important for the enterprises and government decision makers to predict the wood import market accurately. Due to the Natural Forest Protection Project and the zero tariff for log and sawn-wood policy in 1998, great initiative was ignited in wood import. In the future the conflict between the demand and supply of the timber will stand out increasingly. With that said, it is necessary to analyse the main causes of import. The situation of the wood import market is not only closely related to the domestic demand, but also has something with the export, the living standard of the people and rate, etc. This thesis analyzed the main influence factors of the import amount are GDP and timber price with the econometrics method. Besides, by employing the procedure of time seires analysis, it predicts the import trend in the coming year would be stay at a stable point based on historical data. While the wood-based panel would maintain a downward trend. Last but not least, it provides some corresponding countermeasures. The purpose of the thesis lies in providing an effective approach in the woody forest products import research, so as to promote the sustainable development of international trade in China's forest products.