A Study On The Relation Between International Tourism Development And Economic Growth In Xinjiang

Since 1978, Tourism industry in Xinjiang has maintained a steady growth and has gradually become a new growth point of national economy, as well as an important pillar industries, made a tremendous contributions to the economic development in Xinjiang . In this paper the relationship between development of international tourism and economic growth in Xinjiang was analyzed from the six research indicators, that is Xinjiang international tourism income, gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita, the tertiary industry, fixed-asset investment and total retail sales of social consumer goods, with the help of the econometric cointegration theory, impulse response function and forecast variance decomposition was used, combination of econometric software Eviews3.0.The cointegration test result has showed that there is a certain balance contact between the international tourism development of Xinjiang and Various economic growth indicators , the next is this equilibrium relationship will be broken down into the short-term dynamic changes and long-term changes in static through the error correction mode, The results show that international tourism and gross domestic product per capita showed changes in the same direction in the short term, the remaining economic indicators and changes in the direction of international tourism under the explanatory variable and the explanatory variables vary. But in the long term, if the system deviation from this balanced state, while and economic growth indicators would be made consequential amendments according to the deviation. the biggest amendments is between the international tourism and the third , the smallest magnitude amendments is between the Total retail sales of social consumer goods and international tourism.It is determine that there is a equilibrium relationship between international tourism and economic growth indicators, through the Granger causality test to verify the cause and effect relations exist in such a balance, Specifically as follows:①the most obvious promotion role is between in gross domestic product per capita and international tourism ;②Tertiary industry, investment in fixed assets have a direct promoting to international tourism , While the latter have a positive impact on the former both only to a certain development extent.③Along with the transition time, the relationship emerging between in international tourism and the gross national product , as well as total retail sales of social consumer goods.Further through the impulse response function and forecast variance decomposition showed that the process of specific interaction between in development of international tourism and economic growth process , Results show that the interaction between in international tourism and economic indicators, Showed fluctuations in the pre-state, To becoming more and more stable in late stage. the degree of interaction between international tourism and tertiary industry is highest, That is, the greatest contribution, Followed by the gross domestic product per capita,Fixed-asset investment and gross domestic product,the degree of interaction between total retail sales of social consumer goods and international tourism is lowest, despite the interaction exists for a long time.To sum up,there is a certain balance contact between the international tourism development of Xinjiang and economic growth,and there is causal relationships in such a balanced relationship,in which the first obvious causal relationship is that between gross domestic product per capita and international tourism,and the second is that between tertiary industry and investment in fixed assets. However, in terms of the degree of the interaction in causal relationship, the degree of interaction between international tourism and tertiary industry is highest, The mainly reason is the development of international tourism is mainly caused gross domestic product per capita in the first, Spread through the industry chain and then gradually to infiltrate all sectors of the national economy, Promoting regional economic growth. there is strong interaction influence be created between in international tourism and the tertiary industry in the long term ,Then the gross domestic product per capita and fixed asset investment, Finally, To promoting Xinjiang's overall gross domestic product growth through the multiplier effects . In all indicators of economic growth, the degree of interaction between total retail sales of social consumer goods and international tourism is lowest, despite the interaction exists for a long time.This maybe due to the proportion of part of border shopping in the number of retail sales of consumer goods too small , Therefore we can adjust the development of border shopping in the late, so that to enhance the interaction influence between the development of international tourism and retail sales of consumer goods...