| Road passenger transport is the most important passenger transport mode in China. It takes more than 90% passengers in the integrated transport system. As a result of extensive development in a long-term with passenger volume being emphasized more than quantity of the service, the road passenger transport industries in China shows up with lower quality services, imbalance capacity allocation, low level management, confusion market order. Nowadays, on the one hand, the road passenger transport industry is promoted by the development of the economy and the urbanization process in China; on the other hand, it faces new challenge which is brought by passenger rail, air passenger transport and other passenger transport modes. This study is based on this context. Therefore, it is significant in theory and practice to research and design a new scientific management method to improve the effect of road passenger transport policy.Early warning theory is widely used in economic, political and social problems, which controls development process of the things through scrutinizing them. It can detect the development of road passenger transport industry and forecast its trends, make the management department finding out and solving problems before them appearance, ensure that the road passenger transport industry develops healthily.According to the characteristics of road passenger transport, the impact factors of road passenger transport are analyzed in this paper, and evaluation system and its limits is constructed with scientific, systematic, feasibility and effectiveness principles. The warning score is estimated based on the Entropy theory. and its trends is forecasted base on GM (1,1) model. At the end, Fujian Province is carried out empirical research as example. The result agrees with the actual situation, which shows that the early warning model works, and can provide evidence for guiding and regulating the development of the road passenger transport industry. |
PDF Full Text Request