Empirical Research On Business Cycle Of China Since Reform And Opening-up

Business cycle is integrated reflection of the cyclic fluctuation on part of all economic variables, which is inevitable in the process of economic development in every country. Distinct cyclic fluctuation has been witnessed during the fast development of our national economy since the reform and opening-up. Also, economic fluctuation demonstrates some new features and tendencies with the development of economic globalization. Economic fluctuation is influenced by a series of complicate factors, in which fluctuation of demand plays an important role. The fluctuations of investment, consumption and export have been important factors to fluctuation of our national economy since the reform and opening-up. Therefore, it is meaningful for us to make an overall and systematic analysis of the features of our economic fluctuation over the past 30 years and research its influencing factors and operating mechanism. In short, it is helpful for us to realize the objective laws of economic fluctuation under the socialist market economy and understand the developing state of our economy so as to take right macro-regulatory measures at the right time for the sustained, stable and coordinated development of our national economy.On the basis of theories and analytical methods about business cycle, this paper makes a contrast and summary of features and tendencies of economic cyclic fluctuation in our country before and after the reform and opening-up. Meanwhile, econometric models and analysis software are used in this paper to make Granger Causality Test, Cointegration Analysis and Impulse Response Function of economic variables that reflects the economic fluctuation. The empirical analysis is applied to research the long-run dynamic equilibrium and short-term fluctuation between economic fluctuations, invest, consumption and export in China. On this basis, this paper sums up features of macroeconomic control in our country after the reform and opening-up and analyzes its developing trend. In the end, concrete measures and suggestions are put forward in the paper to iron out economic fluctuation and guarantee the sustained and stable development of our national economy.