Research On Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation And The Influence Of Macro-control Policy On Real Estate

The real estate industry is special industry, which is involved with particular land and capital-intensive assets, and its inherent risk determines that it has never been a "tame" tool. There is an implicit real estate business fluctuation cycle for real estate, and the fluctuation will be exacerbated by external environment. Any excessively intense or frequent fluctuations will have an adverse impact on the real estate industry, furthermore, it will interfere with the macroeconomic regulation and control of the government, or even affect the normal operation of the entire national economy. Therefore, the study of the fluctuations in the real estate will help us develop a better understanding for the dynamics of real estate. Meanwhile the study of the real estate control policy will enable us to constitute a better macro-control policy and level the cyclical fluctuations. We could have a superior guidance for how to keep a long-term, stable and healthy economic development in conjunction with these two studies.This research is related with the topic of the real estate cycle fluctuations and the effect of macro regulation and control. Base on the previous literature ,firstly, this paper state the definition of real estate cycle fluctuations, identifying the key factors, and describe the real estate cycles; Secondly, By using 'demand and supply determine the price' thinking, the paper classify the macro-control policy, and made qualitative analysis and evaluation as well. Last but not least, in the research, according to the supply and demand factor, selective variables are applied to establish VAR model , analyze policy-control delay and intensity, and assess the effectiveness of macro-control policy, Most importantly, the study provide a scientific basis for the future constitution of the macro-control policies.The innovation lies in these: First, The author apply the previous comprehensive comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of indicators to establish of the main components of the composite index Description for 1988-2006, which is based on the real estate cycle fluctuations classification of the real estate cycle indicators; Second, the real estate evaluation of the macro-control policies are further developed from the qualitative and quantitative aspects. Especially, VAR model, Granger-Causality Test, impulse response function, and other modern econometric methods provide a sufficient and solid support for the quantitative test; Third, the latest empirical data in the study ensure that the empirical test more timely and effectiveness.