Employment Needs Of Our Economic Cycle Analysis And Forecast Cycle

Economic fluctuation is a normal phenomenon of economic development. And it inevitably influences the behavior of the government, enterprises and individuals. There is clearly a need to develop an early warning system of a country's macro-economy. In this article, economic prosperity monitor and prewarning means that the theories and methods on economic monitor, economic evaluation, and economic forecasting and policy selection are studied on the basis of economics periodic fluctuation -one special economic.It is very important to develop an early warning system of Chinese macro-economy. First, it can help analysis the macro-economy situation .For example, is it hot or cold, what problem exists in the economy and is the policy taking useful for solving the problem. Second, It provide an instrument that helps policymakers identify and anticipate situations in which crises are more likely to happen, so that the symptoms can be detected sufficiently in advance to allow them to adopt preemptive measures. Third Enterprises are interested in this too, because they can be adjusted to adapt to government regulation and control measures. Therefore, the establishment of a suitable macro-economic monitoring and early warning is a major issue.In this paper, in the basis of summary the relevant theory, the history of development of prewarning system of economics is retrospected. And the methods of prewarning which are used are introduced and analyzed, prewarning indicators were screened by economical cycle index.And use from January 2000 to December 2008 sample data on the basis of theoretical analysis and real practice, a quantitative method for economy prewarning indicator screening-economical cycle index, is put forward. Taking the macrocosm operation of China's economic as an example for practical use of this method, prosperity index projected results not only closer to demand and employment, but also coincides with the predictive value. This indicator therefore shows the system needs of the economy on China's employment monitoring and early warning good results.