An Early Warning System Of Chinese Macroeconomy

Economic fluctuation exists in all countries. And it inevitably influence the behavior of the government, enterprises and individuals. There is clearly a need to develop an early warning system (EWS) of a country's macroeconomy. In fact, most of the countries have such a system for their own .It is very important to develop an early warning system (EWS) of Chinese macroeconomy. It can help analysis the macroeconomy situation .For example, is it hot or cold, what problem exists in the economy and is the policy taking useful for solving the problem . It provide an instrument that helps policymakers identify and anticipate situations in which crises are more likely to happen, so that the symptoms can be detected sufficiently in advance to allow them to adopt preemptive measures. Enterprises are interested in this too, because they want to make money.With this in mind, this paper proposes an EWS based on fuzzy and compositive methodology. It has four sections: the first one is introduction. In this section, the history of development of early warning system of economics home and abroad is traced back. And the methods of early warning that are used now are introduced and analyzed. The second section presents the fuzzy and compositive methodology, including its advantages. The third chapter, the EWS of macroeconomy and subordinate function are established according to some rules. In the last section, the recent data is used to test the EWS with good results. The paper stresses the usefulness of the EWS, but it also points out its main limitations.