Research On The Pre-warning System Of The Tourism Economics

With the development of the tourism industry, more and more number of destinations has become the ideal place for vacation, leisure and experience.Based on this, the tourist destinations in China have greatly expanded and improved in the development of scenic area number,reception capacity, traffic communication coverage,commercial living facilities level, number of visitors, employment,economic income of residents and the education level, etc.But at the same time, in the process of tourism development, tourism related managers pay more attention to the economic benefits, but ignore the adverse effects to the society and ecology which caused by the increasing tourists, if these adverse effects did not get attention, this will bring the hidden danger for the sustainable development of tourism. Therefore,it’s necessary to analyze and assess the coordination state of tourism economy,society and ecology by using the rigorous scientific method.Currently,the study of tourism early warning system are mostly analyzed from the perspective of environmental protection,but the research from the comprehensive consideration of tourism economy,society and ecology is still very rare. This paper makes tourism economy,society and ecology in consider, constructs the early warning system of regional tourism economy to guide the sustainable development of tourism economy.Based on the discussion on relevant theory and the progress of the tourism economy and the tourism related early warning system at home and abroad, this paper expounds the construction idea of the regional tourism economy early warning system,and put forward the horizontal and vertical structure of the regional tourist economy early warning system. Steps to build the system are carried in detail. The first step, to determine the early warning index related to the regional tourism economy; The second step, to determine the warning sign index of regional tourism economic early warning system; The third step, to calculate the regional tourism economic development deviation value, then get the alert degree of calendar year;The fourth step, to predict the development of regional tourism economy in the future with gray GM(1, 1) model, and to validate the reliability of the model; Finally, to find out the alarm source which may affect the sustainable development of regional tourism economy system, in order to help managers put forward the precautionary measures.This paper takes Zhangjiajie City as a case,builds the city’s early warning system of regional tourism economy, and analyzes the regional tourism economydevelopment situation in the area with the data of 2004 to 2013, and find out the causes of deviation between the real and expected levels of regional tourism economic development, then puts forward some countermeasures and Suggestions.