Study On Developments Of Real Estate Industry Under The Tight Monetary Policy In China

China's real estate issues attracted attention around the world. As a "power on" industry of fixed asset investment market, real estate industry has a highly positive correlation with the ups and downs of the macroeconomic cycle. Changes of the policy in the real estate market determine the adjustment cycle and the way of the real estate's future. By the end of 2007, prudent monetary policy which maintained nearly a decade of years was changed into tight monetary policy. Real estate companies are short of capital because they are capital-intensive. Huge consumers hold wait-and-see attitude of buying houses in the market. Commercial Banks hold tight credit to maintain tight policy. The entire real estate industry will face how many question and changes, attracted debate and concern from a variety of the society.There are many arguments which sound reasonable of real estate market adjustment. For example, Wang Shi's "inflection point theory", Ran Zhiqiang 's "death, the bank first", Pan Shiyi's "hundred days, dramatic changes," Zhao's "patriotic buying a house " and " house prices bottomed out," "save the market" "do not save the market" and so on. The views and fierce battle on the real estate market reflects the complex pattern and difficulty of adjustment. Only the official statistics of the real estate can be one of the most neutral descriptions.This article takes our country's monetary policy change course as the background, and takes the real estate industry development course as the clue. Then it will elaborate and analysis and research the real estate industry problems in every different stage, it also take advantage of SVAR model to estimate the impact of monetary policy on real estate market, which can be concluded as follows:First, China's real estate was developed from the recovery period, the development period, the macro-control period, which experienced currency housing reform and overheated condition , tight monetary policy in 2007 as an important tool of macroeconomic regulation ,has aroused great importance to the community.Second, the monetary policy transmission mechanism established an effective channel for the measurement model of monetary policy variables and the impact of asset prices.Third, this paper established a SVAR model of monetary policy which variables with the investment and sales in real estate, which can estimate the impact of different policy variables. Conclusions were as follows. Monetary policy can affect the development of real estate investment and sales price, but with limited effect; Monetary policy of interest rate policy impact on the property, the depth and breadth of impact are not as obvious as the credit policy; Money supply plays a positive role in the investment of real estate market, which was associated with China's rigid currency system.Anyway, the demand side of the real estate industry, the supply side as well as third-party regulatory bodies have the responsibility and obligation to work together to solve the issue of real estate development, and to promote China's monetary policy impaction on the property to further enhance the effectiveness and also to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry.