Study On Tanker Capacity For China Crude Oil Import

With the continuous growth of the national economy, China crude oil demand increases dramatically. However, China's own production of crude oil cannot meet the increasing demands. Therefore the difference between the huge demand and relatively small self-supply can only be added by turning to import. The transportation of China imported oil largely relies on ships, but largely transported by foreign tanker companies. If the events of war, diplomatic issues or other irresistible emergency situations are happened, our country will face the situation of lacking or having no crude oil. So due to the increasingly large import crude oil and the implementatuin of the oil seurity reserve strategy, it has to construct an own large crude oil taner fleet.First of all, in the thesis, based on the summing-up of the researches both at home and abroad, the present situations of China crude oil production, consumption and imported & exported are introduced systemly; The main sea routes of crude oil imported are condluded, and the conditions of main loading and discharging ports and fleets of carrying imported crude oil in China are introduced; The main factors that affect oil consumption and demand are summarized. Besides, this thesis also introduces the modes of crude oil imported and all kinds of measures about obtaining more diversified oil.Secondly, according to historical statistics, the prediction of the amount of oil reservation, production, demand and imported & exported of our country are conducted by using quantitative methods. And on the basis of this, the dissertation analyses the impact and stratrgies of the construction of Sino-Myanmar pipeline to China crude oil tanker capacity by using quantitative and qualitative methods together.Finally, the problem of fleet deployment is simplified into linear integer programming adopting linear integer programming technique and the fleet deployment model is estab.lished. In this model the annual total operating cost minimization is an objective function. According to the prediction of transport volumn and routes condition, together with the actual circumstances at home and aboard, the development scale and structure of fleets carrying imported crude oil is analyzed and discussed by using LINGO. Besides, on basis of this fleet plan, the dissertation deeply discusses the impact of China crude oil tanker fleet development planning to petroleum shipping market and puts forward the strategy of the development of China crude oil tanker fleet and China crude oil security. All of these are not only providing the reference and guidance to the trendcy of tanker market, but also having a great significance on protecing the security of China imported crude oil.