Study On Price Of Newbuilding Tanker & Bulk Carrier Based On Econometric Theory

With a new round development of world economy, shipping obtained good opportunity of development, which pushed unprecedented progress of ship markets. As one of shipping rated market, newbuilding market took on unprecedented prosperity. Fluctuation of newbuilding market has deep effect on the run decision of investors, such as ship-owner, financial organization. Therefore, researching on the price of newbuilding and its main determinants has great implication for actor of market.On the basis of summarizing general rule of newbuilding market, this thesis absorbed research achievement of oversea scholars and built ECM of newbuiling price according to every subdivision market about tanker market and bulk carrier market by using econometric theory, mainly co-integration theory, integrating determinants of price among asset pricing, cost based and supply-demand and adding shipping volume. According to analysis, it is found that every subdivision has its own unique characteristic. So it is necessary to research on change law of market or price based on classifying ship types to understand each market better. Data used by this thesis source from Clarkson, the classification of ship types refers to its standard.Through analyzing change law newbuilding market or price, it is found that newbuilding price is still cost-driven. In the short run, the price of secondhand ship has important effect on newbuilding price. At the same time, this article introduces a modeling strategy for researching on change rule of shipping market, which can be used as a reference tool for researching on other market, such as freight market, secondhand ship market and scrap market. In addition, this article compared the performance of forecast between ECM model and ARMA model based on the aims of econometric business cycle research. If you want to realize classic aims of EBCR, ECM model is also preferred. Finally, because newbuilding price is also driven by asset pricing and speculation, this thesis offered a reference tool for the decision of ship investors, that is the ratio of secondhand ship price over newbuilding price.