| Our country is one of the natural disaster most serious countries in the world. The tendency of the agricultural great disaster economical loss presents increases unceasingly. The agricultural great disaster risk question has become the restricts of the agricultural production and the policy-type agricultural insurance development. At present, our country only has one reinsurance company, which reinsurance ability is limited. The establishment of agriculture disaster venture capital is the choice and the efficient path to solve the agriculture great disaster risk question. Therefore the research of agriculture great disaster venture capital question has important theory significance and practical significance.Under this kind of realistic background, this article synthesis used agricultural economics, numerical calculus method, econometrics and correlation theories and method. We used Matlab, Surfer, Spss and other related software. Under the foundation of research, profits from other domains analysis of data and the research technique.Unify the qualitative analysis and the quantitative investigation. According to the data, carry on the related statistical analysis of our country agriculture great disaster venture capital's influencing factor like tariff, the disaster lost the change rule and so on. The operational mechanism of agricultural great disaster venture capital is discussed.The follows are the primary coverage and the conclusion:First, our country crop production disaster loses is more serious. This article with the aid of statistics related statistical system.The computation obtains our country crop production disaster to lose the index mean value is 0.09762 (1949-2007). The disasters lose index of Shandong Province, Jilin Province, the Zhejiang Province are 0.11387, 0.13407, 0.06293 (1949-2007) respectively. The tendency of the disaster loses has increases year by year.Second, in disaster rule aspect, through the coefficient of fluctuation and the weighting deviation coefficient two targets weigh our country various provinces natural disaster difference. The findings indicate between our country natural disaster year border and local difference big. Using the Morlet wavelet analysis method to study our country crop production stock losses characteristic time criterion and the periodic characteristic.The result indicated that our country crop production natural disaster and the main disaster plant (flooding, drought, low temperature, wind hail) to present the obvious periodic variation.Third, looked from our country agricultural insurance's practice stratification plane, specially in agricultural insurance tariff aspect. At present each province's rate of our country variance is obvious. The insurance also has the obvious difference. But the overall situation in which the majority of province agricultural insurance tariff is excessively low. The individual province's tariff is high, but the tariff high province insurance is low. Therefore, policy-type agricultural insurance premium has not obvious difference.Fourth, policy-type agricultural insurance experiment site effect is remarkable. But the agricultural great disaster venture capital related question waits for further consummates. The 6th chapter of this article has carried on the simulation analysis to our country three typical province's great disaster venture capital related questions. Since 2004, the new round policy-type agricultural insurance experiment site has launched one after another in each region. Various provinces work out the agricultural insurance experiment site plan. In the risk responsibility aspect, undertakes the limited liability, implements the policy-type agricultural insurance highest payment responsibility to place an upper limit on the plan in the entire province scope(take the entire province agriculture danger year payment in the same year insurance premium several time of within payment responsibilities As sealed the crest line). Undertakes the payment responsibility in this insurance. The height of the crest line is different. Shandong Province, Zhejiang Province implement the plan highest payment standard respectively is 3 times and 5 times, Jilin Province of the experiment site plan explanation has not given rise to explicit agricultural great disaster how to pay damages.Fifth, according to 1949-2007 year statistical data, the research obtains the biggest theoretical value of our country crop production agriculture great disaster venture capital is 257.06 billion Yuan. Shandong Province, Jilin Province, Zhejiang Province's agricultural great disaster venture capital scale respectively is 31.16, 13.22, 10.85billionYuan. The nation and various provinces may rest on this establishment agriculture great disaster venture capital. |
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