Study On The Impact Of Food Production Brought By The Cultivated Land Changes In Hebei Province

Cultivated land is an important carrier of food production and material foundation, and is also an important guarantee for the food safety. Studying on the cultivated land change and its impact on food production has practical significance on achieving the sustainable use of the cultivated land resouces and the sustainable development of food production.Hebei is a major agricultural province and food production province, and has impotant locations in the metropolitan area around Beijing and Tianjin and in the Bohai west bank city group. Studying on the cultivated land resources and food production in Hebei province has a reference value on the protection of cultivated land resources, regional and national food security.At first, the paper analyses the mechanism . that the cultivated land is for food production, in theory, then goes into the empirical analysis. Under the conditions of knowing the current situation and changing trend of cultivated land resources in Hebei, study the impact that the cultivated land has on the food production in Hebei province: set up the factor decomposition of food production, analyses the constituent elements that every factor contributes to the food production, carry out the time series analysis among the rate of cultivated land change, the rate of grain area change and the total output of grain, set up the C-D function model of food production. And further through the establishment of the minimum per capita cultivated land model and the cultivated land stress index model, study the change of the minimum per capita cultivated land cultivated stress index, then predict the cultivated land stress index in Hebei province in2020 by using the second exponential smoothing method. In the end. considering the specific situation in Hebei province, put up the measures that protect cultivated land and improve the capacity of food production.