An Empirical Study On Effects Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations To Economic Development In Jilin Province

With the continuous deepening of the global economic integration,the degree of export-oriented economy in Jilin has been increasing. At the same time of enjoying the many benefits arising from Broad participation in the global economy, Jilin is also facing the problem that the open economy must face—the positive and negative effects of exchange rate fluctuations. So it is very practical significance for optimizing the industrial structure, promoting economic growth of Jilin that study the exchange rate fluctuations impact to Jilin's economic.Based on the basic theory of exchange rate fluctuations to economic growth, through analysis the relationship between the RMB real effective exchange rate volatility and Jilin economic variables, this paper systematically study the impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate volatility to Jilin macro- economic and micro-economic. This paper is structured as follows:The first part is Literature Review. This part mainly introduces the domestic and foreign scholars'research of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the economy.The second part measure Jilin's real effective exchange rate. Based on introducing the evolution of China's RMB exchange rate system and the concept of nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, this part measures Jilin's real effective exchange rate.The third part analysis the macroeconomic implications of Jilin's real effective exchange rate fluctuations. This section's empirical analysis is mainly from three aspects, import and export trade of Jilin Province, foreign direct investment and bank exchange settlement and sales which is impacted by the real effective exchange rate volatility. Analysis found: the impact to Jilin import trade of real effective exchange rate volatility is greater than its exports; there is no obvious negative effects for volatility to the whole import and export trade of Jilin; there is no significant impact for volatility to Jilin's trade balance; there is obvious negative correlation for volatility to Jilin FDI. When RMB exchange rate is expected appreciation, the overall changing trends of Jilin's bank exchange settlement and sales is that foreign exchange settlement and sales both remain fairly high growth rate, the balance of foreign exchange payments continued to deficit.The forth part analysis the microeconomic implications of Jilin's real effective exchange rate fluctuations. This section analysis the exchange rate volatility's impact to the exchange-related enterprise and individual in the form of investigate questionnaire. The fifth part is policy recommendations. This part proposes the relevant recommendations on how to respond to exchange rate fluctuation risks from two part of enterprise and support department.