Research On The Impact Of RMB Exchange-rate Fluctuation On The Import And Export Trade In Tianjin

In recent years,China's economic development is stability,the macro indicators are floating in prediction,but the change of RMB exchange rate can't be completely predicted,under the influence of Chinese currency system and the United States' economic power to us,RMB has been presenting a rising trend in recent years,but in 2016,RMB had a turning point,it had a suddenly devaluation,this change of RMB may affect China's foreign trade.Tianjin is the core area of the northern trade,Excellent geographical environment and national substantial support make the foreign trade's development of Tianjin having been at a leading level,it must have a certain practical significance to study the influence of the exchange rate's change to Tianjin's foreign trade in recent years.By looking for some official websites,like the IMF,Tianjin's customs,the national bureau of statistics and so on,we collect the monthly data of Tianjin's import and export and RMB exchange rate in 2011 to 2016,and then based on the predecessors' research experience,this paper uses both theory and empirical analysis to study the influence of the RMB exchange rate's change to Tianjin's import and export trade,and in the empirical analysis,time series analysis methods are used in the quantitative analysis to demonstrate the relation between exchange rate's movement and Tianjin's import and export from aspects of long-term,short-term and the causal effect.On the basis of this conclusion,this paper chose a typical foreign trade enterprise in Tianjin to study how exchange rate's change effect the enterprise and the effect way.Both for further validation of above conclusion,also for having a thorough analysis on the impact of exchange rate from the enterprise level.At last,through the theoretical,empirical and case analysis,this article concludes that the RMB exchange rate's change has a certain influence to Tianjin's import and export trade.1.In a relatively long period of time,there is a cointegration relation between exchange rate and import and export,as the devaluation of RMB's real effective exchange,Tianjin's import will be less and the export will be more,so as to improve the trade balance.In a shorter period,it is changing gradually at a certain speed to adjust to equilibrium and achieving stable long-term equilibrium.2.The actual effective exchange rate,income level and government policy are all the granger due to the import and export,and export is also the granger due to REER.3.The change of exchange rate causes the relative price and production cost of the foreign trade enterprise to change,in addition,the exchange profit and loss,trading loss,and corporate financing can also be affected.In view of above conclusions,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions,so as to have a good reference for the development of Tianjin and the whole north foreign trade.