The Study On Land Use Change In Zhejiang Province Based On Renewed Survey Date

Land use change is one of the most obvious aspect of globe change.Since the 1990s,the research of Land use change has become the important field of global environmental change,at the same time,it's the hotspot of China'S resource science,geography,remote sensing information science and other multi-disciplinary research at present.It has quite important meaning for grasping the rule of land use and forecasting the change of land use.Zhejiang province is taken as an example in this paper,based on the land survey date,Land survey data updates and the soc-economical statistic yearbook from the year 1996 to 2006 in Zhejiang province.First ,the analysis of the present land use is carried out,this part emphatically analyzes the amount and the distributing of land use in Zhejiang province;Sceond,by using the land-use change date from the year 1996 to 2006 ,the land-use dynamic degree,the intensity of land-use change,the relatively change rate of land use type, the entropy of information of land use framework are carried out respectively for the land use change in the 11 years in Zhejiang province;Then by using the soc-economical statistic date from the year 1996 to 2006, the analysis of driving force of the cultivated land and the construction land is carried out by correlation analysis as well as principal components analysis; Again,the change rate and structure of the land use change of Zhejiang province is analyzed related to the nation by comparing that of Zhejiang province with that of the nation. At last, the area of cultivated land and construction land is forecasted by model GM(1,1) and regression,which could provide according for the sustained land use.It takes on the trend that the farmland land the unused land are reducing and the construction land is increasing from the year 1996 to 2006.The area of the cultivated land and the unused land are the biggest which are reducing and which respectively reduces 208.86khm~2 and 179.83khm~2; The area of the residential and independent industrial and mining land and the wood land are the biggest which are increasing and which respectively increase 196.65khm~2 and 108.61khm~2.From the time point of view, the change speed of land use in Zhejiang province in the 11 years is quite fast,whose average is 2.56.The speed of the transportation land and the grassland are the biggest,whose annual variance ratio are 10.1% and 5.5%.The change intensity of the cultivated land and the unused land are the most large among the reducing land,whose change intensity are 2.39 and 2.06; The change intensity of the residential and independent industrial and mining land are the most large among the increasing land,whose change intensity are 2.25.Point of view from space,the relatively change rate of land use type of different district in Zhejiang province is different.The relatively change rate of the water conservancy facilities land in Wenzhou city is the biggest and its relatively change rate is 1.93; The relatively change rate of the unused land in Huzhou city is the lowest and its relatively change rate is 0.66; The entropy of information of land use framework of Zhejiang province in recent 10 years gose a process that ascends in advance and then descends,which demonstrates that the land use system in Zhejiang province goes a process from disorder to order. From the view of Spatial variation of the entropy of information of land use framework,the district whose entropy of information of land use framework is lowest are distributed at the southwest in Zhejiang province and its area is quite large;Other districts whose entropy of information of land use framework is less are distributed at the west ,central ,south in Zhejiang province ;While the district whose entropy of information of land use framework is quite large are distributed at the east and Huzhou district in the north in Zhejiang province .The driving force analysis is respectively carried out to the cultivated land and the construction land in Zhejiang province by the statistical analysis software SPSS.It founds that:population growth,economic development and adjustment of industrial structure are the main factors which affect the cultivated land's change in Zhejiang province; population growth , economic development , urbanization and traffic construction are the main factors which affect the construction land's change in Zhejiang province.By comparing the change rate and structure of the land use change of Zhejiang province with that in the nation,it is found that the whole change rate of land use change of Zhejiang province is large than that of the nation,among which the that of transportation is the largest; The land use system in Zhejiang province goes a process from disorder to order,but the land use system in the nation is going a relative disorder process.The forecast is carried out to the cultivated land and the construction land in Zhejiang province by grey model GM(1,1) and regression Model. The result reveals that:till the year 2020, the area of cultivated land will reduce to 1671.1khm~2,the construction land will increase to 1498.3khm~2.