Study On The Cultivated Land Change And It’s Forecast-Case Of Shangrao City

China is a country where the person is much but the ground is less. Land resourceseems to be exiguous since1978, with the rapid economic development, urbanizationand industrialization, together with the decline of soil quality caused by irrationalutilization, cultivated land loss become severely, faced tremendous pressure. On a certaindegree, the reduction tendency of cultivated land is unreversible. Our food security andthe national economy is huge threaten. Under sustainable development and closeattention to national food security background, to know and master the change ofcultivated land in Shangrao city, analysis the driving factors of dynamic change, andforecast its tendency is beneficial to the protection and rational use of cultivated landresources. Also it is of significance in the national food security and can accelerate thearea-economy Sustainable developmentIn this paper based on the economic and social statistic data of ShangRao city andthe Data of land use change survey, analysed the cultivated land use conditions and cameto the conclusion that since1978agricultural acreage go through three stages: InitialFluctuations (1949-1957)—decreased year by year(1958-1999)—fluctuation changes(2000-2011). Based on SPSS19.0，studied the driving mechanism of cultivated landchang by principal components regression (PCR), the results showed that:the growth ofpopulation, Urbanization, Economic Development, Sci-tech Input,positivity of plantingare the most important driving factors of cultivated land change.In addition to theaffection of Social Economy, Cultivated Land also drived by natural factors. Evenmore land-use structure adjusting and national policy play decisive roles in cultivatedland change.At the end predict the number of cultivated land in next five years By ARIMAmodel. The prediction results proved that the area of cultivated land present a increasingtrend, but its growth rate turns slowly.This is mainly caused by farmland protectionpolicy and the total amount of land-Suitable for Cultivation.