Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate On Service Trade Exportation

The service economy which is featured in service industry and service trade took the most important part in the second half of 20^th century. Service industry is becoming more and more important part in the international trade, and has already been a vital criteria to judge the ability of a country. Exchange rate and its changes consists of the main risk in the field of international trade, and directly determine the cost and scale of the export products. But because of the different influencing ways and different internal trading facts, we need to analyze different effect on different country. Based on supply and demand model, using China's 1982-2008 years related data, combined with cointegration analysis, vector autoregression, as well as pulse function and variance decomposition methods, this paper, discussed China's exchange rate and service trade export relationship. Conclusions indicate that China's service trade exports stays in the long-term growth state, but the international market share is not high and the competition is not strong. In the long term, Trade in services exports based on its own previous growth and within the early stage of the exchange rate, as well as domestic and international impact of GDP. In the short term, the exchange rate elasticity is 0.6125. The impact of exchange rate movements on China's service trade exports lag period 2.The long term exchange rate movements on trade in services exports gives contribution rate of 4.05%, and when the exchange rate changes from the depreciation of 4.1% to 16.04% appreciation, which will have no effect on China's service trade exports basically. In addition, China's service trade exports were affected by GDP home and abroad, but the main growth in the long term strength comes from its own domestic growth.