| Along with the rapid influx of rural labor into cities, the rural labor has made a great contribution to the nation's GDP and urban construction; at the same time bring shock to the urban labor market. Domestic scholars begin to evaluate this effect from angles of employment rate, wage and price, etc. but mostly concerning on qualitative analysis, while empirical estimations are inadequate.this paper'research purpose is, by empirical analysis,to estimate the extent to which the rural-urban migration impacts cities'price and wage.The paper uses theories and researches of other countries for reference, studies on the impact of rural migration on urban labor markets. Makes a comparison of the rural-urban migration and United States-Mexico immigrants. And on the basis of comparability, quotes Neoclassical Trade Theory, uses Card'framework, to model the impact of rural migration on city'price and wage.The paper uses labor, price and wage data from statistics of 2004-2008, selects four industries of nontrade sector:construction industry, resident service and other service industry, traffic, transport, storage and post industry, electricity, gas and water supply industry, by region-industry group, runs a separate regression for each industry and explores the migration shock. The paper finds that, in price effects, Compared to other regions, Western Area'analysis results shows a more significant negative effect in statistical, but the magnitudes are small.Take construction industry for example, a 10 percent increase in rural migrant labor reduces the price of housing construction and decoration materials by 0.017%.In wage regression, Contrary to the theory analysis, the inflow of rural migrant labor bring a slightly positive impact on the wage of industry, and shows statistically significant. Supposing that, besides the labor supply, other factors including labor demand and capital gains play more roles on the impacts. |
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