Research On Development Scale Of Foreign Urban Rail Transit

With the steady growth of per capita income and the accelerating process of urbanization, the urban rail transit in China steps into the stage of rapid development. On the one hand, due to the rapid expansion of transport demand, traffic problems have become increasingly prominent as the bottleneck constraining economic development; On the other hand, the continues expansions of the cities cause a lot of long distance travels, and the capacity of conventional public transit is far from enough for modern passenger transportation, so a large number of rail transit projects arise in domestic cities. To guarantee a scientific, healthy and well-organized development of Chinese rail transmit, it is necessary to pay attention to the empirical study on the development scale of urban rail transmit. In this thesis, we summarize the experience of foreign urban rail transit and explore the characteristics of rail transit as well as the law of development.With the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, this thesis, firstly, describes current status of international rail transit and qualitatively analyses the operation modes and performances of rail transit in typical foreign cities; Secondly, this thesis quantitatively analyses the level of development of the international rail transportation by multivariate statistical analysis, including three parts. First, we divide 26 typical cities in the world into three categories by cluster analysis on the rail transportation development levels of these cities; Second, we establish a factor measurement system of rail transit development scale, and obtain four major factors that affect the scale of rail transit; Third, based on the results of cluster analysis and factor analysis, we use stepwise regression method to establish the quantitative relationships between scales and impact factors of rail transit for the three categories, respectively. Finally, this thesis generalizes and predicts the development trend of foreign rail transit, and provides suggestions on the development of rail transit in China based on the relative development experience of foreign rail transit.