Studies On Financial Crisis Warning Of Agricultural Listed Companies In China

China's securities market is developing rapidly. However, it is still immature. More and more companies sink into the crisis even go into bankrupt because of their financial crisis. Agricultural listed companies face the dual pressures of natural risks and market risks, how to avoid the risk, diagnose and defuse the crisis through financial early-warning model is an important issue faced with the agricultural listed companies. At the end of 2009, seven of the 41 agricultural listed companies are in special treatment, so, if agricultural listed companies want to maintain long-term and stable development, building an effective, flexible and suitable financial early-warning model is extremely important for agricultural listed companies.In this paper, we choose all the 7 ST agricultural listed companies in 2009 as a sample and 31 agricultural listed companies in good financial condition constitutes a control sample, In virtue of SPSS 16.0, we choose 17 initial variables from the solvency, profitability other three areas. Then we use multiple linear regression model and the data of the previous year (2008) to establish model. Finally, we analyse the financial data of agricultural listed companies from 2004-2007 four consecutive years by multiple linear regression model, The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:First, We calculate Z value of 38 sample companies selected, adjusting the critical value, We obtain the following results: When the Z value is less than 1.5, the company's financial situation is poor; when the Z value is greater than 1.5, the company is good. Then we can learn the company's financial conditions by introducing a agricultural listed company's financial data into the model.Second, Research shows that multiple linear regression model of agriculture listed companies has a good predictive accuracy rate as high as 84% or more interpreting agriculture listed companies can use this model to predict. The results show that: the shorter the interval, the more accuracy of prediction, the rate of accuracy of Previous 1 years'warning model on financial crisis is 92.1%, and in the year closer ST, the lower the false positive rate is.Third, asset-liability ratio, current ratio, sales net profit margin, total assets growth rate of 11 indicators consisting of multiple linear regression model can be used for ST company's risk prevention, including asset-liability ratio, total asset growth rate of main business income of relatively significant, the contribution of the model is relatively large.