Empirical Research On Financial Crisis Early-Warning In Agricultural Listed Companies Based On EVA

Agricultural listed companies are products of China’s agricultural development and occupy an important position in agricultural development. However, some of those companies in the development processes are prone to back agricultural operations, financial issues are listed, such as ST and termination, hindering agricultural healthy and sustainable development of listed companies. How to reduce or avoid the financial crisis by the financial crisis early-warning model is the key issue that the agricultural listed companies facing. Thus, to build a scientific and rational agricultural listed companies’ financial early-warning model is important for the long-term and stable development of agricultural listed companies.In this paper, we choose4ST agricultural listed companies and48normal agricultural listed companies in2013as samples. Through the study of the financial crisis early warning and EVA theory, proposed agricultural listed companies’ financial crisis prediction model based on EVA, EVA will be introduced to the financial index system of agricultural listed companies instead of simple accounting profit, accounting profit can not fully consider the cost of equity capital. Construction of the index system of agricultural listed companies based on EVA, we choose21initial variables from the solvency, profitability and other three areas. Then we use logistic regression model and the data of the financial crisis occurred three years ago to establish model. Finally, we analyse the financial data of agricultural listed companies from2008-2009by logistic regression model to detection accuracy of the financial crisis. The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:1.We calculate the probability of52agricultural listed companies’ financial crisis p, set the critical value and obtain the following results:when the p is greater than0.5, the agricultural listed company’ financial situation is poor; when the p is less than0.5, the agricultural listed company’ financial situation is good. Then we can learn the company’s financial conditions by introducing an agricultural listed company’s financial data into the logistic model.2.Research shows that the logistic regression model based on EVA of agricultural listed companies has a good prediction accuracy rate as high as80%. And the distance to special treatment is longer, the accuracy of prediction is lower; the distance to special treatment is shorter, the accuracy of prediction is higher.3.Research shows that the current ratio, correction sales net profit margin and net profit growth rate are significant to agricultural listed companies’ financial situation, and the three indicators consisting of logistic regression model can be used to reduce or avoid the occurrence of agricultural listed companies’ financial crisis.