Urban Residential Development Potential Research Based On Factor Analysis

Through recent years' development, real estate industry has played a more and more important role in the national economic development. Since the reform of urban housing system in 1998, residential development has become prominent in city construction and residential investment accounts for more than one half of urban real estate investment in most cities. The dwelling level of urban residents has improved quite a lot since the Reform and Opening-up but it still has a long way to go to achieve a comparatively comfortable standard. Therefore, residential development will remain a high growth rate in quite the long future with the rapid development of national economy and the enduring advancing of urbanization. Under the influence of production factor endowments and national policies, the imbalance of economic development among different regions will exist in the long term and it affects the development of residential industry. The eastern costal areas have much better real estate development than the middle and western areas. The real estate development is pretty different among cities and hard to quantize, which is not conducive to government's policy implementation and corporate investment decision. How to appraise urban residential development potential and how to choose cities with investment potentials to make the investment? Those questions need to answer and so the relative research is in great need.Based on the comprehensive analysis of relative theoretical studies home and abroad, this paper targets to construct a scientific, reasonable and feasible system to appraise urban residential development potential, with the combination of theories of Urbanization, urban competitiveness, supply and demand, the science of human settlements and urban development and operation. The system considers the existing development lever and all the influence factors, most of its indices are in growth rate and per capita, not in increment and total quantity. Sample data come from the 35 large and medium-sized cities in the year from 2003 to 2007. The paper builds a statistical model to make empirical study, analyzes the comprehensive score and scores by factor, discusses the difference in urban residential development potentials among cities and regions, and finally makes some suggestions on how to find and improve urban residential development potential.